Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[History Learner]

Just how many Western mercs are there in Ukraine? Less than 1,000 in total?

Expectations since the start of the war was for between 10,000 to 20,000 with the Russians saying in June they believed there was at least 7,000.

 

[History Learner]

Quoting a guy who gives no sources, and a track record of being wrong.

I'm assuming you meant to say the guy who does give sources and I'm sure you can substantiate the latter?

Remember a month ago when he was claiming the Kherson offensive was a sad failure?

Remember when ISW and people in this thread were claiming, less than two weeks ago, that it was just meant as a distraction to explain away the heavy losses and lack of concrete gains in territory from late August until now? The original vectors of the attack failed, this came from a different sector entirely. By all objective metrics, he was right to say such.

 

[Megadeath]

I'm assuming you meant to say the guy who does give sources and I'm sure you can substantiate the latter?







Remember when ISW and people in this thread were claiming, less than two weeks ago, that it was just meant as a distraction to explain away the heavy losses and lack of concrete gains in territory from late August until now? The original vectors of the attack failed, this came from a different sector entirely. By all objective metrics, he was right to say such.

Let's say you're right. This random German reporter, who's never been to the places he's reporting from, and who faces heavy criticism and backlash from people more intimately familiar with the situation; let us say that he is right and Russia only lost 13 people in giving up Lyman. I mean, it's ridiculous but let's try it on for size.

Do you think it actually stands Russia in good stead that they pussied out, ran for the hills, and once again lost and abandoned a ton of equipment, in a battle that saw barely a dozen casualties? When they were protecting a strategically significant and logistically vital hub, the entire force gave up and fucked off, because half a platoon bought it? Fighting to the death can be dumb, but so is the opposite extreme.

Oh wait! Your Kremlin sponsors claim there was only ever a couple hundred people there to start with, don't they? It's a pretty sad and worrying sign that even so vital a location only merits 1 or 2 companies.

I guess they were needed down in Kherson to stop the offensive there. Too bad they couldn't. I mean... Try as you'd like to spin this, Russia are losing ground on all fronts. They're deploying unmotivated and untrained fools who failed to join the mass exodus, without even basic equipment. Their high command are more concerned with arguing over who's fault it is than fixing things.

Ya know... I seem to recall you making some bold claims about casualty figures. I think if we'd accepted your BS, we'd have to believe that Ukraine are fielding ghosts at this point. Funnily enough, it's Russia who are suffering a man power shortage.

 

[Megadeath]

In the propaganda being produced by the West, sure, but in reality not at all. No one was claiming Ukraine would fall in 72 hours before the invasion; JCS as the invasion began was predicting Kiev would fall in 72-96 hours, but that's not the same as the country at all. Ukraine is the largest country in Europe and has the largest Army, if you exclude Russia itself; acting like its a failure by Russia to conquer it all in less than two weeks when it took the United States a full month to take Iraq in 2003 is the only thing laughable here.

Did Rusia stumble in the opening days? Without question, but it was not because of a lack of capabilities but because of planning; they made the intentional decision of limiting strikes and withholding key abilities precisely because they wanted to limit civilian and even Ukrainian military losses. This was shown most obviously in the complete lack of targeting of military barracks, for example. Now, however, the gloves are off and its showing how wrong this analysis of "crappy military performance" is:

1. All but two roads into Kyiv have been cut, with the Ukrainians themselves now admitting the Russians are positioning themselves to complete the encirclement. There is a reason we are seeing a storm of news articles about the Western Powers already turning their focus to insurgency and government in exile.
2. As part of the above, Sumy and Chernihiv have been encircled with an indeterminate amount of Ukrainian military. Food supplies have already been exhausted in Sumy and the noose is tightening.
3. Mariupol, with a garrison possibly as strong as 7,000 has been encircled and now the Russians have secured the outer suburbs.
4. Kharkov appears to be surrounded, and the Russians are pushing fast on Izyum to cut the LOCs into the Donbass. The JTO represents the largest grouping of Ukrainian forces, at somewhere between 45,000 to possibly as high as 75,000 personnel. In the next three to five days, it will either have to retreat in the open under murderous Russian fire or it will be encircled and destroyed. Everything east of the Dnieper will collapse regardless of which occurs, but if it is the former then the Russians now have a free hand to advance on Lviv and take Odessa.

Ya know... It's kinda fun to revisit our earlier thoughts from time to time. Are you prepared to admit that your analysis of the Kyiv situation was wrong at least? Or, maybe it's all been a brilliant triple bluff, and all the supposedly dead Russians are just hiding in Belarus waiting for the perfect time to decapitate an overconfident Ukrainian regime?

 

[Megadeath]

The Russian attack in the Kiev direction has achieved its purpose, it tied large amounts of the Ukrainian Army which has enabled the Russians to achieve their goals elsewhere, namely the establishment of a land bridge to Crimea and set the conditions for the encirclement of the JTO to be completed. Somewhere between 50,000 to 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers are about to be encircled and forced to surrender, that's going to decide the war and it explains why Ukraine is increasingly desperate to get a peace deal while they still have some leverage.

All that NATO training, equipment and volunteers did nothing to prevent this, the Russian way of war is alive and well.

Oh jeez... I guess I missed the moment when tens of thousands of Ukrainians died or surrendered? Also the bit where the war was decided 6 months before the mass Russian mobilisation by a desperate Ukrainian peace deal.

Oh... Actually I checked. That didn't happen! You're just completely and absurdly wrong, repeatedly! Shall we keep going with the rest of your prognostications? (Hint: They don't stand the test of time any better.)

 

[History Learner]

Let's say you're right. This random German reporter, who's never been to the places he's reporting from, and who faces heavy criticism and backlash from people more intimately familiar with the situation; let us say that he is right and Russia only lost 13 people in giving up Lyman. I mean, it's ridiculous but let's try it on for size.

I know you're bad faith, even this is a new low for you:



The 13 was referring to a specific unit, and he explicitly stated as such; at least try to be convincing when lying. Likewise, it's very interesting you've decided to add caution on reporting on casualties, when in past conversations on the topic of casualties you made no such distinctions; very curious indeed. That you consider randoms on Twitter is valid pushback is also something I must file as interesting, again, given our past convos.

Do you think it actually stands Russia in good stead that they pussied out, ran for the hills, and once again lost and abandoned a ton of equipment, in a battle that saw barely a dozen casualties? When they were protecting a strategically significant and logistically vital hub, the entire force gave up and fucked off, because half a platoon bought it? Fighting to the death can be dumb, but so is the opposite extreme.

Or, we could also realize you're acting in comically bad faith and/or have poor reading comprehension; both fit the scenario. Total KIA of around 100 around Lyman is his guess, followed by another 200 to 300 in the evacuation days given the circumstances. That would suggest another 1,500 WIA. Russian sources claimed it was 500 defending the city itself, while Ukrainians said up to 5,500. AFU claimed they were attacking with around 12,000 men, Russians claimed up to 25,000. Take your picks on these number, and then consider the fact the Russians held out for almost three weeks.

Oh wait! Your Kremlin sponsors claim there was only ever a couple hundred people there to start with, don't they? It's a pretty sad and worrying sign that even so vital a location only merits 1 or 2 companies.

Sweetie, I'm absolutely delighted to know you think like this; it fills me with joy to know I live in your head rent free to such an extent you think I'm getting paid to make you seethe so much. Specific to your points raised, you provide a case in point of why I gladly do it for free. The Russian claim of 500 would actually correspond to a battalion level unit and was specifically for the garrison of Lyman itself. Once again, we find out you don't even know basic military details, so I'm glad I'm here to explain concepts you feel so confidant in attempting to act haughty on.

I guess they were needed down in Kherson to stop the offensive there. Too bad they couldn't. I mean... Try as you'd like to spin this, Russia are losing ground on all fronts. They're deploying unmotivated and untrained fools who failed to join the mass exodus, without even basic equipment. Their high command are more concerned with arguing over who's fault it is than fixing things.

Except they are training and equipping them, for one, and that Russian has lost territory I've never contested; I correctly predicted what would happen after Lyman. The main point, which I've already cited, is the complete failure of Ukraine to inflict a decisive defeat upon the Russian so far; that leaves the core Russian Army intact to which the newly mobilized can be built off of.

Ya know... I seem to recall you making some bold claims about casualty figures. I think if we'd accepted your BS, we'd have to believe that Ukraine are fielding ghosts at this point. Funnily enough, it's Russia who are suffering a man power shortage.

Which is a funny way of saying you're mischaracterizing the argument, given it was about AFU losses suffered to date. Back in May, I believe it was, I did state if Ukrainian losses continue on in the same rate they'd run out of bodies in a year.

 

[Megadeath]

Leaving aside the fact you've goal post shifted from saying they couldn't build any at all, it's time to either admit you were wrong or provide evidence. Since you didn't seem to read it the first time, allow me to re-quote it for you:

The S-500 long-range surface-to-air missile system has entered series production, Almaz-Antey CEO Yan Novikov told the Russian National Defence journal on 25 April in an interview commemorating 20 years of the corporation.​

I welcome you to cite where in this sentence, or the article at large, it says they are only building a few. Rather, it directly states they are doing serial production, which means "full scale production run", to use your own parlance.



Except the Janes article I've provided is directly saying that's all false and they've started mass production. As I said, it's time to either use your ability to look at data and change your opinions to admit you're wrong, or start providing evidence. As I said to you elsewhere, you need to stop reading Western psy-op stuff like NEXTA in favor of actually researching this, because nothing you're claiming here is actually backed up by the data.

So... Where those s-500's at? Coz, apparently it ain't Ukraine.

 

[History Learner]

Ya know... It's kinda fun to revisit our earlier thoughts from time to time. Are you prepared to admit that your analysis of the Kyiv situation was wrong at least? Or, maybe it's all been a brilliant triple bluff, and all the supposedly dead Russians are just hiding in Belarus waiting for the perfect time to decapitate an overconfident Ukrainian regime?

Sure, but remember that bit about Belarus for later on in this war, eh?

Oh jeez... I guess I missed the moment when tens of thousands of Ukrainians died or surrendered? Also the bit where the war was decided 6 months before the mass Russian mobilisation by a desperate Ukrainian peace deal.

Indeed you did miss it, given the Ukrainians admitted in June they had taken 10,000 KIA and the over 10,000 PoWs taken.

Oh... Actually I checked. That didn't happen! You're just completely and absurdly wrong, repeatedly! Shall we keep going with the rest of your prognostications? (Hint: They don't stand the test of time any better.)

Overwhelmingly, they did. Case in point:

So... Where those s-500's at? Coz, apparently it ain't Ukraine.

What the Ukrainian Air Force doing?

 

[Megadeath]

Indeed you did miss it, given the Ukrainians admitted in June they had taken 10,000 KIA and the over 10,000 PoWs taken.

Which is well short for the entirety, of your claims for the one specific area.

Overwhelmingly, they did. Case in point:

What the Ukrainian Air Force doing?

Haha! That they're operating at all should be an embarrassment to Russia. Also... Not actually relevant to your claim that they ought to be fielding the s500.

God... Your ability to double-think, excuse and creatively interpret the most cherry picked sources is truly something to behold. I remember why I put you on ignore now. I'm pretty sure nothing short of Ukrainian tanks rolling into Moscow will convince you that Russia aren't playing some genius grand strategy. Hell, you'd probably even brush that off as Russia looking for an excuse to go MAD. I might be a bit drunk right now, but I don't think any level of inebriation will let me sink to your level. I hope the mental gymnastics you'll continue to practice will give you the mental exercise necessary to overcome your idiotic bias.

EDIT; Honestly, it's like nothing so much as the insanity that had people claiming trump was in a bunker, about to execute mass arrests of every registered democrat after he lost the election. It's just so unhinged from reality that every point against it is perceived as another brilliant 4d chess move.

 

[Megadeath]

@History Learner just gotta say, not related to any particular post, but all your weird "sweetie" shit is... Well, weird. If you feel the need to sexualise geopolitical debate, I guess that's okay? But it just makes you look like you need to get out more.

 

[History Learner]

Which is well short for the entirety, of your claims for the one specific area.

Except you directly asked if you missed the tens of thousands of KIAs and PoWs; you did, apparently. You didn't specify you were talking about my claim.

Haha! That they're operating at all should be an embarrassment to Russia. Also... Not actually relevant to your claim that they ought to be fielding the s500.

In which case, you continue to reveal just how little you know of military affairs. If this is an embarrassment for Russia, why does the U.S. Air Force now apply the lessons learned to its own Air Force? As for the air war, given the RuAF doesn't operate deep strikes, what is keeping the AFU from doing the same and overall being at a disadvantage relative to the Russians? Maybe, just maybe, it might be the Russian AD system?

God... Your ability to double-think, excuse and creatively interpret the most cherry picked sources is truly something to behold. I remember why I put you on ignore now. I'm pretty sure nothing short of Ukrainian tanks rolling into Moscow will convince you that Russia aren't playing some genius grand strategy. Hell, you'd probably even brush that off as Russia looking for an excuse to go MAD. I might be a bit drunk right now, but I don't think any level of inebriation will let me sink to your level. I hope the mental gymnastics you'll continue to practice will give you the mental exercise necessary to overcome your idiotic bias.

The projection in this is hilarious, given you just admitted you put me on ignore; your own mental gymnastics are so bad you can't even handle contrary opinions, you get that triggered lol.

EDIT; Honestly, it's like nothing so much as the insanity that had people claiming trump was in a bunker, about to execute mass arrests of every registered democrat after he lost the election. It's just so unhinged from reality that every point against it is perceived as another brilliant 4d chess move.

Now, now Megadeath, you should be careful what you say about Trump so your compatriots in this thread don't turn on you for that one.

 

[History Learner]

@History Learner just gotta say, not related to any particular post, but all your weird "sweetie" shit is... Well, weird. If you feel the need to sexualise geopolitical debate, I guess that's okay? But it just makes you look like you need to get out more.

Would you like to try to be less comically bad faith?

The only pro-russia argument seems to be "Russia really really wanted it you guys! If Ukraine just bent over and took it up the arse like Russia wanted, Russia never would have had to try and rape them."

Jeez, I know he can't hear this, so hopefully it's not considered incivility to really share my mind? This man-child is a fucking moron. He repeats lies, he changes positions more often than a whore going for the kama sutra bingo, he pops off insults, slurs and strawmen like crazy, if you disagree you're "reeing"... It's fucking painful.

 

[Bacle]

 

[Megadeath]

The projection in this is hilarious, given you just admitted you put me on ignore; your own mental gymnastics are so bad you can't even handle contrary opinions, you get that triggered lol.

Admitted? I'm 99% sure I told you about it at the time, moron. That's also not what that means. You're just assigning arbitrary values to terms at this point.

Now, now Megadeath, you should be careful what you say about Trump so your compatriots in this thread don't turn on you for that one.

Ahahahahaha! Haha! Oh... man, seriously? Go look at my posting history, dumbass.

Would you like to try to be less comically bad faith?

I'm starting to think you don't know what those words mean? Or, really, understand how English works, if you're comparing either of those to your own homoerotic patronisation. Like... the first is a graphic metaphor, because the visceral nature is attention grabbing and it pointedly compares it to another famously bad line of defence. The second was blatant insult, again slightly going for shock value, to express/vent my extreme impatience. You just seem to patronise everyone who disagrees with you, in the gayest way I can imagine other than calling us a a gaggle of silly geese.

 

[Vaermina]

What the Ukrainian Air Force doing?

I think you missed the date on those tweets, here's something a bit more recent on that.

Russia’s Air Force Goes Missing At The Worst Possible Time—During Ukraine’s Counteroffensive

The Russian air force is missing in action. It has made no meaningful effort to halt the twin Ukrainian counteroffensives that kicked off on Aug. 30 in the south and eight days later in the east. Here's why.

www.forbes.com

 

[TheRejectionist]

so this happened apparently. Good news for Italy.

No I didn't vote for Meloni. I voted for the People's Sovereign Italy, basically the left wing nationalist coalition in a very few words who got 300k votes.

Let's how it goes.

This is after despite Meloni said weapons shipments will go to Ukraine.

Don't know.

 

[Zachowon]

I mean, as long as yall contuine the weapons I don't think thr world actually cares.
I do somewhat hope your country understands that the money it is sending is going to go towards killing a lot of people, civilians included

 

[Husky_Khan]

Oh dang I wanted to post about that alas...

Anyways... Finn's knit 20,000 socks for Ukraine.



Meanwhile Russia Reportedly Breaking Out the Foot Wraps.

 

[Zachowon]

When Russia amd North Korea have more ik common them one realizes

 

[Sailor.X]

When Russia amd North Korea have more ik common them one realizes

Russia went from being a feared Military Power to a Laughing Stock Military Power in less than a year.