Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[LordsFire]

His and your truth. There are few universal truths in this world but Russia being the aggressor certainly ain't one of them🖖

Ukraine hadn't even mobilized before the invasion began, IIRC Zelensky was avoiding such in order to try to minimize the chance of war as much as reasonably possible.

If you cannot see that Russia is the aggressor, I question if you can see your hand in front of your face.

 

[Husky_Khan]

All but confirmed. Ukraine has only lost one jet so far in this War.

 

[lloyd007]

All but confirmed. Ukraine has only lost one jet so far in this War.

Eh... while they *might* be only down 1 operational jet from 2/23/22 due to transfers from other countries and bringing planes out of reserve and such. Oryx shows 142 aircraft (including 52 combat and 4 transport) photo/video documented losses for Ukraine. List Of Aircraft Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

 

[Husky_Khan]

Eh... while they *might* be only down 1 operational jet from 2/23/22 due to transfers from other countries and bringing planes out of reserve and such. Oryx shows 142 aircraft (including 52 combat and 4 transport) photo/video documented losses for Ukraine. List Of Aircraft Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

I meant the post in jest because I'm sure the estimations are very wrong but yeah, they have been receiving replacement and new aircraft.

 

[lloyd007]

I meant the post in jest because I'm sure the estimations are very wrong but yeah, they have been receiving replacement and new aircraft.

Missed your emoji...

 

[Husky_Khan]

Been a while since we've seen how the Mobiks been doing.

An unexpected glimpse of disillusionment in Russia’s trenches

The former frontline village of Novopetrivka, in southern Ukraine’s Mykolaiv oblast, offers a glimpse of the day-to-day existence for Russian soldiers.

www.militarytimes.com

Everything seems fine here.

 

[ATP]

His and your truth. There are few universal truths in this world but Russia being the aggressor certainly ain't one of them🖖

Who invade ? Moscov Ukraine.So yes,kgbstan is agressor.If you take part of other state,then you are agressor.
And USA so far send only Himars,ammo for them and drones - all else is old stuff which they must destroy anyway.
If it really was proxy war,you would see american tanks and planes there.
@Husky_Khan ,thanks for info.Ukraine have money for building monuments of their genociders,so Poland must train their soldiers for polish money.
We are lead by idiots.

 

[Urabrask Revealed]

That first tweet, when do you think they will start fragging commanders and marauding in Russia? Like, this seems to be a prime recipe to get banditery into modernity.

 

[Zachowon]

Probably one of the eastern NATO BMP-1 modifications.

Oh yeah.
So things that arnt very high end.

They probably wish they had a HIMARS

 

[ATP]

For now. That's the first shipment. There will be more. With the logistical demands of Abrams, that's particularly major.
Also past controversy apparently has cleared up in an interesting way:

Shit.Now we do not have both tanks and planes.And no matter who win,would want kill us.
Well,if we survive,it would be only thanks to Holy Mary.An it is not joke.Both soviets and ukrainians are making monuments of genociders who killed poles.
Whoever win,would be after us.

I really hope,that USA would keep sending old stuff there.

 

[Marduk]

So Poland went full IKEA mode, huh?

Anyway:

Private Site

Considering the above, what are the chances of Ukraine buying Gripen post-war?

Low. It's expensive, it's rare as far as supply and upgrade future potential is concerned, and getting replacements would be hard.
It's going to be F-16's or used F-18's because they are cheap and available, looking towards F-35's like Poland if they get to join NATO, this is exactly the reason why USA is obsessed with stealth.

Shit.Now we do not have both tanks and planes.And no matter who win,would want kill us.
Well,if we survive,it would be only thanks to Holy Mary.An it is not joke.Both soviets and ukrainians are making monuments of genociders who killed poles.
Whoever win,would be after us.

I really hope,that USA would keep sending old stuff there.

We still have vastly better F-16's (seriously, we didn't even have any radar guided missiles on the right side of use-by date left for Mig-29's, and we all have heard of the... maintenance issue related with getting parts). Really, it was a choice between giving them to Ukraine while they still are remotely usable or losing them anyway to age and lack of any serious source of parts.

 

[Aldarion]

Low. It's expensive, it's rare as far as supply and upgrade future potential is concerned, and getting replacements would be hard.
It's going to be F-16's or used F-18's because they are cheap and available, looking towards F-35's like Poland if they get to join NATO, this is exactly the reason why USA is obsessed with stealth.

Problem with F-35 though is, how capable it is of operating from road bases? Sure, stealth is an advantage against radar-based SAMs, but reading the article:

It should also be kept in mind that Ukraine utilized road basing and dirt strips to preserve their aircraft while on the ground. Most groundside losses had in fact happened during opening days of the war before Ukrainians had had the time to disperse their aircraft to road bases and backup air fields – Ukraine had lost six of its 30 MiG-29s in a single attack, and almost no losses on the ground had happened after 27 February. It is entirely likely that Western air forces would have suffered far more extensive losses on the ground. In fact, Ukrainian usage of Russian aircraft was a major advantage precisely because of their ability to use rough fields and half-fallen-apart airstrips, and their STOL capability giving them ability to operate from highways as well.

Currently, Ukrainian aircraft and crews operate from ad-hoc secret bases established after the war has begun. These can be old dispersal air fields as well as aircraft shelters constructed near highways and other roads, with fighter jets taking off those same roads. This is the only way for them to survive the threat of Russian missile strikes that had been so devastating in the opening days of the war. And Ukraine was aware of this problem. Ukrainian Air Force had been training in operating from dispersed road bases since at least the 2014. Crimean War.

So I'm not sure US obsession with stealth is smart, unless it is possible to combine two capabilities. If it is not, then you basically get a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

Of course, I doubt it will factor into any post-war procurement, especially if Ukraine joins NATO, so yeah...

 

[Marduk]

Problem with F-35 though is, how capable it is of operating from road bases? Sure, stealth is an advantage against radar-based SAMs, but reading the article:


So I'm not sure US obsession with stealth is smart, unless it is possible to combine two capabilities. If it is not, then you basically get a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

If the F-35A can't take improvised bases, there's always F-35C with gear and structure reinforced for carrier ops, and even SVTOL F-35B.

 

[Bacle]

Problem with F-35 though is, how capable it is of operating from road bases? Sure, stealth is an advantage against radar-based SAMs, but reading the article:


So I'm not sure US obsession with stealth is smart, unless it is possible to combine two capabilities. If it is not, then you basically get a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

Of course, I doubt it will factor into any post-war procurement, especially if Ukraine joins NATO, so yeah...

If the F-35A can't take improvised bases, there's always F-35C with gear and structure reinforced for carrier ops, and even SVTOL F-35B.

Stealth is a game where both sides are constantly evolving and is never going to be a sure thing either; being road capable and being able to carry a powerful jammer is probably going to be more economically effective than being bleeding edge.

This war has shown that air power is a fickle thing, when AA/SAM/SHORAD density means deep strikes are going to be done by drones or missiles, not manned aircraft if at all avoidable.

 

[Marduk]

Stealth is a game where both sides are constantly evolving and is never going to be a sure thing either; being road capable and being able to carry a powerful jammer is probably going to be more economically effective than being bleeding edge.

There is one inherent limit to that - home on jam missiles are a thing since ages, and more weapons are getting that as an extra operation mode.

This war has shown that air power is a fickle thing, when AA/SAM/SHORAD density means deep strikes are going to be done by drones or missiles, not manned aircraft if at all avoidable.

Let's not forget that aircraft can use stand-off weapons too, and both sides are using theirs in that role (Ukrainian Mig-29's with HARMs, Russian cruise missile bombers and long range AAM launching fighters) without taking much if any losses.

 

[Bacle]

There is one inherent limit to that - home on jam missiles are a thing since ages, and more weapons are getting that as an extra operation mode.

Home-on-jam is a thing, yes, but that does not negate that having road capable aircraft is in many ways turning out to be more useful for modern warfare than previously thought.

Let's not forget that aircraft can use stand-off weapons too, and both sides are using theirs in that role (Ukrainian Mig-29's with HARMs, Russian cruise missile bombers and long range AAM launching fighters) without taking much if any losses.

Stand-off is safer, for sure.

My point is that this conflict is showing tactical air support is running up against the realities/limits of massive AA/MANPAD/SAM presence on the front line and in-depth.

 

[Marduk]

Home-on-jam is a thing, yes, but that does not negate that having road capable aircraft is in many ways turning out to be more useful for modern warfare than previously thought.

That applies only if you can't protect your airbases one way or another.

Stand-off is safer, for sure.

My point is that this conflict is showing tactical air support is running up against the realities/limits of massive AA/MANPAD/SAM presence on the front line and in-depth.

On the other hand, there are positively ancient helicopters and attack planes doing pop-up unguided rocket attacks and coming back, for what such attacks are worth.
They would be doing much better if they had even late cold war toys in supply like proper over the horizon fire and forget missiles, or helicopters with longbow radar masts with suitable missiles.
Even the discussion about F-16's for Ukraine revolves around the fact that they can toss bomb accurately with JDAMs and GBUs from low altitude and fire long range missiles.

 

[LordsFire]

This war has shown that air power is a fickle thing, when AA/SAM/SHORAD density means deep strikes are going to be done by drones or missiles, not manned aircraft if at all avoidable.

This war has shown what low-budget, poorly-maintained air power does. It's not completely unrelated to what a competent and well-funded air force can do, but if NATO ever actually gets into a hot war, you can expect things to look very different.

Just how different, nobody will know until it actually happens, but it certainly won't look like the actual shit show the Russians have pulled off.

It'll also depend in part, of course, on what the enemy is fielding.

 

[History Learner]

This war has shown that air power is a fickle thing, when AA/SAM/SHORAD density means deep strikes are going to be done by drones or missiles, not manned aircraft if at all avoidable.

Exactly this, with the biggest example being the U.S. Air Force using the example of the Ukraine War as to why they would no longer event attempt to contest air superiority with China in favor of mutual air denial. They've also begun rotating air wings out of the First Island Chain given how vulnerable they are now.

 

[History Learner]

Ukraine hadn't even mobilized before the invasion began, IIRC Zelensky was avoiding such in order to try to minimize the chance of war as much as reasonably possible.

Is that why he mobilized reservists on February 22nd?

If you cannot see that Russia is the aggressor, I question if you can see your hand in front of your face.