Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Marduk]

With whatever Russia would use to blow up the rest of the West's satellites? FWIW, I am specifically talking about blowing up Starlink's satellites here. I don't know what else Starlink has.

Number of satellites...
That's what Starlink has.
The GPS constellation, obviously a pretty major and important one, has 31 operational satellites.
You can at least imagine Russia arranging enough functional ASAT missiles to hit those and even having some left for replacements and other targets.
Starlink? Currently at over 3k satellites, aiming for about 12k in already established plans, and then probably more...
So what the hell are they going to shoot at those? I wouldn't bet Russia even has that many air to air missiles, nevermind ASAT ones.

 

[lloyd007]

Number of satellites...
That's what Starlink has.
The GPS constellation, obviously a pretty major and important one, has 31 operational satellites.
You can at least imagine Russia arranging enough functional ASAT missiles to hit those and even having some left for replacements and other targets.
Starlink? Currently at over 3k satellites, aiming for about 12k in already established plans, and then probably more...
So what the hell are they going to shoot at those? I wouldn't bet Russia even has that many air to air missiles, nevermind ASAT ones.

Kessler Syndrome is basically destroying enough satellites that LEO becomes filled with shrapnel flying at 20k mph relative to most everything else up there. It'll be an immediate catastrophe that will probably take decades to clean up since AFAIK, we've tested very little in any solutions to this problem.

 

[Megadeath]

Kessler Syndrome is basically destroying enough satellites that LEO becomes filled with shrapnel flying at 20k mph relative to most everything else up there. It'll be an immediate catastrophe that will probably take decades to clean up since AFAIK, we've tested very little in any solutions to this problem.

Saying "20k mph relative to most everything else" is a gross oversimplification. Orbital mechanics just don't work like that.

 

[strunkenwhite]

Be that as it may, unless Kessler Syndrome turns out to be a myth, Starlink would probably be in more danger than GPS.

 

[Marduk]

Kessler Syndrome is basically destroying enough satellites that LEO becomes filled with shrapnel flying at 20k mph relative to most everything else up there. It'll be an immediate catastrophe that will probably take decades to clean up since AFAIK, we've tested very little in any solutions to this problem.

Kessler syndrome is not immediate "destroy everything" button everyone is scaremongering about.
It can massively increase chances of collisions in certain orbits...
But if you have few thousands of satellite, with some level of collision avoidance, a lot of them in less typical, very low orbits, and can replace them relatively cheaply, you can afford to lose some every year.

 

[Bacle]

Well, looks like we moved on from a WW3 to a Third Impact scenario; we all be tang now.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Well, looks like we moved on from a WW3 to a Third Impact scenario; we all be tang now.

So now our future gets decided by some pussy who cries all the time?

 

[ATP]

Well, looks like we moved on from a WW3 to a Third Impact scenario; we all be tang now.

Crosses on heaven was supposed to be seen before 3 days of darkness.I hope,that it not happen in my times.

On another topic,Wojciech Sumliński,polish journalist,wrote in his book "/Nie/ nasza wojna"/my translation - /Not/ our war,
that USA run from Afganistan and agreed to NS2 to provoke Putin to attack Ukraine.
Maybe true,but...democrats could be just dumb.No need for conspiracy theories to explain working of idiot.

 

[WolfBear]

Crosses on heaven was supposed to be seen before 3 days of darkness.I hope,that it not happen in my times.

On another topic,Wojciech Sumliński,polish journalist,wrote in his book "/Nie/ nasza wojna"/my translation - /Not/ our war,
that USA run from Afganistan and agreed to NS2 to provoke Putin to attack Ukraine.
Maybe true,but...democrats could be just dumb.No need for conspiracy theories to explain working of idiot.

Wouldn't agreeing to NS2 have, in theory, made Putin less likely to attack Ukraine since he'd have more of a stake in preserving economic ties with the West?

 

[LordsFire]

Wouldn't agreeing to NS2 have, in theory, made Putin less likely to attack Ukraine since he'd have more of a stake in preserving economic ties with the West?

That's what the Germans thought.

Didn't work out that way though, did it?

 

[WolfBear]

That's what the Germans thought.

Didn't work out that way though, did it?

No, it didn't. But this doesn't necessarily mean that Putin would have been any more docile without NS2.

 

[Marduk]

No, it didn't. But this doesn't necessarily mean that Putin would have been any more docile without NS2.

Remember, Putin thought he would take Ukraine in a 3 day special operation. That created a possibility that Ukrainians will spitefully blow the land gas lines before they are defeated, so NS2 would be handy. Either that, or Poland makes something happen to their section.

 

[WolfBear]

Remember, Putin thought he would take Ukraine in a 3 day special operation. That created a possibility that Ukrainians will spitefully blow the land gas lines before they are defeated, so NS2 would be handy. Either that, or Poland makes something happen to their section.

But even if Putin would have taken Ukraine in 3 days, Germany would have still cancelled Nord Stream 2, so Putin would have still lost in regards to NS2 specifically.

 

[WolfBear]

Imagining the unimaginable with Ukraine

It’s time for policymakers to start imagining the unimaginable with regard to the Russo-Ukrainian war. That won’t be easy. It takes far less effort to imagine the imaginable: that the Russian Feder…

thehill.com

 

[Marduk]

But even if Putin would have taken Ukraine in 3 days, Germany would have still cancelled Nord Stream 2, so Putin would have still lost in regards to NS2 specifically.

But for how long? Less pressure on politicians to support Ukraine, less war crime data coming out, many German politicians were expecting to have to weather the storm for a few months and then quietly go back to business as usual.

 

[WolfBear]

But for how long? Less pressure on politicians to support Ukraine, less war crime data coming out, many German politicians were expecting to have to weather the storm for a few months and then quietly go back to business as usual.

So, Germany's decision to suspend NS2 once Russia recognized the Donbass Republics and sent its own troops there was just a ploy meant for public consumption, meant to be reversed in several months or a year or two or three or four or five?

 

[WolfBear]

Purely hypothetical question, but had Russia succeeded in overrunning all of Ukraine, do you think that Romania and Hungary would have militarily intervened to protect their ethnic kinsmen in Ukraine at the last minute in order to prevent them from falling under Russian rule?

 

[Marduk]

So, Germany's decision to suspend NS2 once Russia recognized the Donbass Republics and sent its own troops there was just a ploy meant for public consumption, meant to be reversed in several months or a year or two or three or four or five?

Well, it was a formal suspension only, something that can be reversed with the stroke of a pen.
Once Russia won, there would be a massive lobby campaign about how it's pointless to cry over spilled milk, keeping it closed won't change anything, might aswell go back to business.

Purely hypothetical question, but had Russia succeeded in overrunning all of Ukraine, do you think that Romania and Hungary would have militarily intervened to protect their ethnic kinsmen in Ukraine at the last minute in order to prevent them from falling under Russian rule?

I'd give it 25% for Hungary, 10% for Romania.

 

[Husky_Khan]

More Mobilization Information. Here's a handy list of what to bring if you are Mobilized



Enemy at the Gates might've had myths about the Soviet Army but they allegedly ring true today.



Sakhalin mobik families will Reportedly receive fishy bonuses.



Hopefully one of the lucky ones who surrendered.



Strategic Missile Force Troops Reportedly Were Found Serving in Izyum. Don't worry, Russia's Nuclear Deterrent Remains Safe and at full capability.

 

[Marduk]

So they want to threaten Kessler Syndrome now as well, it seems, because of how damaging US sigint/NRO birds and the data we give Ukraine from them, have been to the 'Special military operation'.

Dude is delusional.
A launch of "few truck loads of gravel" into space is just as deniable as a launch of "few truckloads of tungsten" that just happens to be shaped like long rod penetrators and completely accidentally falls around whatever bunker Putin is sitting in.