Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

History Learner

Well-known member
Are you really going to sit there and pretend that this sprawling debate wouldn't be even more ridiculously time consuming if I tried to take on your whole post at once? Who do you even think is going to believe this lie? I mean, I guess there's at least one person. (@TerrificWarden)

Ah, so now the excuse has shifted from "I don't have time" to "I find it ridiculously to engage it"? If the first was accurate, you wouldn't still be arguing on this and if the second was accurate you would, again, still not be arguing over it. That you are proves exactly what I said; they're nothing more than excuses to give cover for a cherry pick on your part. Now that I've called it out, you've brought out the appeal to majority fallacy. You're not slick, nor clever here.

This does not prove the claim.
lol

When you're constantly shifting definitions, as you are, I'm sure it doesn't. Again, you're not clever here.

Do you really not know what cherry picking is? I just got done indicating that it's more than simply "picking one subtopic to argue about". You can disagree with my definition or you can disagree with what I'm claiming I've done, but you can't claim I admitted to "cherry picking" because as I define that term I have admitted no such thing and you have yet to define it in such a way that I admitted to actions constituting cherry picking. That's not special pleading when my definition is entirely normal and not constructed for the purpose of excluding what I'm doing from cherry picking.

I don't have to claim you've done a cherry pick when from your very first post, you admitted it. In your own words, you decided to take the point about aircraft losses as illustrative of the whole argument; would you like me to quote you on that? That is the definition of a cherry pick and why you've been reduced to special pleading and other logical fallacies because even the point you were trying to target has stood up under scrutiny, it's why you're trying to shift definitions now.

I wouldn't argue if someone said I was just trying to go after low hanging fruit. Although you're making this absurdly difficult I could hardly disagree that my goal in only arguing about one paragraph was to reduce my own workload.

So which excuse is it? If you're trying to reduce your own workload, it's odd you've remained in an extended dialogue.

Show me the military that complained about having too much dakka. They don't need to be suffering catastrophic losses to want more reinforcement. Your objection is absurd!

U.S. Armed Forces, 1944. War orders across the board began to be slashed.

Truly, working the public to generate political support for military desires has never happened.

So to appeal to the public they put it in the trade journal for the U.S. defense industry instead of American consumer media? Yeah, okay.
 

History Learner

Well-known member
Another day, another wave of mobilization excellence!

Putin's Mobilization Orders Might've Dampened Some of his Domestic Support



While I'm sure @LordsFire will be along shortly to condemn the lack of English translation, the main issue with this should've been obvious; it's from an uncited Telegram channel without reference to the actual source. I tracked it down, and...

The news of mobilization came as a shock, and we see a significant rise of pessimism and uncertainty about the future, as people realize that the war is much closer that they used to think. Yet, this has only limited effect on the ratings of the authorities. Putin’s approval rating went down from 83% to 77%, approval of the government from 68% to 63%, and so on.​



Kazakhstan Offers Hope as Reportedly a Hundred Thousand Russians Coincidentally Decided to Take Vacations in Kazakhstan.


How very bizarre the Kyiv Post left out the detail the Kazahks agreed to turn over anybody requested by the Russians, nor is issuing residence permits:
"Our official institutions will not issue residence permits to individuals who fail to provide documents proving that the countries of their citizenship have no objections against their move to Kazakhstan," Ashimbaev said.​

Penal Battalions Being Used to "Support" Wagner Operations.



Very curious Robby boy hasn't reported on Ukraine emptying its prisons starting months ago, including the release of the Tornado Battalion members, who had been imprisoned because of their mass rapes of children in the Donbass. Equally interesting, however, is the follow on posts of that were not cited and are of interest, particularly to those convinced Western weapons can change the overall strategic balance:

 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
The news of mobilization came as a shock, and we see a significant rise of pessimism and uncertainty about the future, as people realize that the war is much closer that they used to think. Yet, this has only limited effect on the ratings of the authorities. Putin’s approval rating went down from 83% to 77%, approval of the government from 68% to 63%, and so on.​

I hate to sound cynical, considering that I myself am of partial Russian (and other East Slavic descent), but a lot of Russians appear to enjoy blindly obeying their leaders like docile sheep.
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Sotnik
Random bits and bobs not really War Developments Per SE.

Battlefield Pigs Growing Fat Off the Harvest.



Another Russian Battlevan.





Hasidic Jewish Nazis in Ukraine Doing Their Thing, Going to Party!



British Donated Spartan FV103 Armored Fighting Vehicles named 'Bojo' after the former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson who almost died fighting in Ukraine recently, leading a failed Commando Assault on a Russian held nuclear facility.

 

History Learner

Well-known member
I'm guessing you don't realize that Russia's troops in Lyman were utterly destroyed in the time between you making the previous statement and this one.

I'm guessing your forgot this exchange started because I posted about the situation in Lyman? Hell, I even correctly guessed where the Russian defensive line would shift to:

So, if the AFU takes the city, what does that mean? Most likely, a fall back to a defensive line based on Svatove-Kreminna-Rubizhne.

As for destroyed, hardly; the Russian reinforcements kept the road open and evacuated the garrison. Arestovych claimed the garrison was 5,500 so where is the evidence of thousands of Russian KIA and PoWs? So far, there's only between one photo and two videos posted for a grand total of eight PoWs that I have seen. Russian sources claimed the garrison in Lyman itself was around 500, for the record.
 

lloyd007

Well-known member
Off-topic, but it's worth noting that continental Western Europeans have significantly come around on the question of eventual Ukrainian EU membership since even the mid-2010s:

There's a reason why there was meh to favorable press given to the Russian takeover of Crimea and even the Donbass separatists before they shot down MH17, and that was because Ukraine was pretty much a corruptocrat playground of everyone from Putin to Hunter Bribem... but they've proven they're supremely better than they were in 2014.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
There's a reason why there was meh to favorable press given to the Russian takeover of Crimea and even the Donbass separatists before they shot down MH17, and that was because Ukraine was pretty much a corruptocrat playground of everyone from Putin to Hunter Bribem... but they've proven they're supremely better than they were in 2014.

There's also the tiny little fact that Crimea and the Donbass could be justified on national self-determination grounds, but not Russia's invasion of the rest of Ukraine.
 

lloyd007

Well-known member
There's also the tiny little fact that Crimea and the Donbass could be justified on national self-determination grounds, but not Russia's invasion of the rest of Ukraine.
Gee, it's like my entire post was either implying (i.e. Crimea going rather bloodlessly because Ukraine was corrupt AF at the time) or outright stating this very thing i.e. calling them 'Donbass separatists.' :rolleyes:
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Gee, it's like my entire post was either implying (i.e. Crimea going rather bloodlessly because Ukraine was corrupt AF at the time) or outright stating this very thing i.e. calling them 'Donbass separatists.' :rolleyes:

You don't have to be so rude about it!
 

ATP

Well-known member
Are you sure about that?

Let's review - Russia, as has been clearly shown by current events, is essentially still stuck in the 90s in terms of military technology. Meanwhile, the United States has been on the cutting edge of this development. Now account for long-range stealth recon drones like the RQ-180, and then ask yourself how much more advanced ISTAR assets than that exist that are still very hush hush skunkworks level.

Now ask yourself - why has Russia blown scads of money on dumbshit doomsday weapons like the Status-6 and the nuclear-powered cruise missile when they could simply defeat our meager missile defense shield by just standing up more warheads? They blew INF out of the water, do you really think they give a fuck about START II? Hell, even under START limits they should, on paper, have WAY more warheads than required to saturate our ABM defenses, and if they're worried about some prospective roll-out of, e.g. AEGIS Ashore across CONUS then just building more of the weapons they already have on hand, fully mature and developed would be the easy and most cost-effective way to go.

What are they worried about?

I wouldn't discount the possibility of a very, very successful pre-emptive counter-force strike by the US. Because the Russians seem awful worried about it to me.

Of course,that they fear.Problem is - soviet always feared ,and usually for no reason.
For example - when in Poland we had putch in 1926,sovied intelligence alarmed that Piłsudzki who made it is England agent and now he would lead combined polish-german armies to crush soviets for England.
Which,of course,was bullshit.

Now,they could fear USA - but USA gave UKraine to soviets in 2021 ,Putin only must do that slowly and piece by piece.
He break deal and go for all - but,USA still want deal with Moscov,not destroy them.

P.S How probable is,that Moscov have:
1.Hidden super army
2.Hidden underground cities for atomic war
3.Both

You seems as person who knew things,so could you check it?
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
Are you sure about that?

Let's review - Russia, as has been clearly shown by current events, is essentially still stuck in the 90s in terms of military technology. Meanwhile, the United States has been on the cutting edge of this development. Now account for long-range stealth recon drones like the RQ-180, and then ask yourself how much more advanced ISTAR assets than that exist that are still very hush hush skunkworks level.

Now ask yourself - why has Russia blown scads of money on dumbshit doomsday weapons like the Status-6 and the nuclear-powered cruise missile when they could simply defeat our meager missile defense shield by just standing up more warheads? They blew INF out of the water, do you really think they give a fuck about START II? Hell, even under START limits they should, on paper, have WAY more warheads than required to saturate our ABM defenses, and if they're worried about some prospective roll-out of, e.g. AEGIS Ashore across CONUS then just building more of the weapons they already have on hand, fully mature and developed would be the easy and most cost-effective way to go.

What are they worried about?

I wouldn't discount the possibility of a very, very successful pre-emptive counter-force strike by the US. Because the Russians seem awful worried about it to me.
Smoke and mirrors. Shit straight from a Bond movie gets the western journos to scaremonger their own public. Doesn't even need to work or exist in more than few prototypes really.
A thousand new warheads on boring ol' missiles achieves just a fraction that, while costing serious money for maintenance and support, assuming they actually do it.
Makes me wonder what kind of studies did they do into the value of nuclear weapons as a psychological weapon\public influence tool in merely existing and being often mentioned in public discourse, hence the common nuclear threats. It's also notable that their propagandists in their threats never mention that the western countries also have nuclear arsenals and would retaliate with them if attacked. Could be a innovative, media-military integration based psychological warfare strategy. Unlike nuclear war, which would require a lot of the weapons to work and then wouldn't leave them as winners either way, nuclear psy-ops don't risk the important people getting vaporized, nor even a retaliation in kind, because western countries aren't into that kind of thing and Russia has tight censorship anyway.
 
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Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Sotnik

What assistance could the Rebel Alliance even provide Ukraine right now? They're too busy fighting the Empire. And even if they weren't, drone support? Astromechs maybe.

The Galactic Empire has way more capabilities in that regard even if everything was parity. Imperial Probe Droids. Sentry Droids. Enforcer droids. Even obsolete stocks of Clone Wars era battledroids. If we want to help Ukraine, they should be putting pressure on countries like Balmorra who've been benefiting from the stability of Intergalactic Commerce that's been setup. But if course they won't. They're more cucked then Israel.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member

27a.jpg
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Sotnik
I mean, even that would probably a big help.

I'm not criticizing Luke Skywalker's support on drones for Ukraine and now that I've read the article, the Rebel Alliance could provide excellent pilot training. Even drone pilot training. And astromechs droids would be useful. But if they really want to help, Ukraine needs speeders and preferably armored ones. V-25's and AAC-1's for example.
 

ATP

Well-known member
On totally unrelated topic - in 25 aniversary of Poland joining NATO, oposition made conference.USA ambassador joined them.
Another proof,that USA want germans ruling Poland again.
Which,for Ukraine,mean that we would help as much as germans.

Well,Democrats always must support Moscov.
 

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