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Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Vaermina

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Russia can import Chinese guns, no? Or at least try to do so. Or Indian guns, though that's probably much less likely.
Yes, but then they would need to import Chinese shells to go with those Chinese artillery instead of using their own.

Also, China's not up for selling to Russia.
 

WolfBear

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An interesting take from a while back:

 

History Learner

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Yes about that Washington Post source that said 5:1 casualties:

So your only other data point is a Ukrainian Tank Platoon Commander in a hospital.
It's extremely comical you say this and then proceed to quote another person, showing you literally lied in one sentence and revealed it another lol.

When we look further into the Washington Post article the only statement about casualties is this:

So this is Ihor who stated the casualties were five to one. So that means a 1/5th a Russian soldier died. And I guess three wounded.
Or, you know, you can use common sense and realize there was more than just his platoon taking part. Hell, above you literally cited a soldier from another unit talking about their casualties. I know you're bad faith, but c'mon.

So again.. the ten thousand lost is based on this platoon commander.
Again, you say this, and then proceed to quote the person who actually said it; if you're going to lie, at least lie convincingly.

And us assuming that Illia Ponomorenko stated that ten thousand died in three weeks since he made this post:

Which we've already shown is contradicted by other statements from State sources and non Ukrainian sources. Would you like to try something else besides repeating yourself again and again?

As well as your Math based on a Low Confidence Estimate back in April:
Which we've already shown isn't true, you literally cited the post in question. It's why you're too chicken to answer my question about Zelensky and his advisers.

And Arestoyvych stating: "Something like that."

Sure....and U.S. intelligence, President Zelesnky and three other top Ukrainian officials too. Again, do you consider Zelensky a low confidence source?

And numbers ranging from 60-100, 100-200, 300-500 and 30 KIA a day taken as little as days apart that you apply consistently over weeks and months of time.
You say this and proceed to show Zelesnky doing exactly as I am, with him directly saying those averages were applicable for two months. Either I'm right or the entire leadership of Ukrainian is lying and/or incompetents with all that implies for Ukraine's future. That's why you are unable to actually answer me on that, and just keep repeating the same debunked points.

Actually looking at that article...



So he's sure that the casualties are down to 30 fatalities a day and around 250 wounded because of figures he "just consulted." There's nothing there to state he has exact confidence in a statement of 100-200... or 300-500 or 60-100 which makes sense because those figures are as broad as 5500-11000 or 9000 in the first twenty five plus weeks of the War and 10,000 more dead in the last three weeks. It looks like the only daily statistic he is exactly certain on is the thirty dead just supplied by the military and that it is a "number of times lower than Russia's.'"
So President Zelensky had never once checked his phone until that very moment lol? A bold claim Cotton, only surpassed by you saying he doesn't have confidence in the figures....except for the part where he says "I can tell you exactly". Pray do tell how he has low confidence in numbers he tells us he can tell us exactly?

If you're going to lie, at least be smart enough not to literally post the evidence that shows you're lying.

Again, I'm not seeing how a Tank Platoon Commander who lost one killed and sixteen wounded in a battle of 5:1 ratio, combined with Illia Ponomarenko apparently stating 9000 died in the first 25+ weeks in the war and 10000 died in the last three weeks, combined with the above low confidence estimates from US Intelligence back in April, combined with numbers ranging from 30-500 KIA a day taken as little as a few days apart, and Zelensky only stating with confidence that there were 30 KIA a day, is a reliable basis for any sort of remotely accurate casualty estimation.
Sure, if we ignore the part of you showing it was more than just a Tank commander, the President of the Ukraine telling us he could show exact figures of casualties and the inconsistencies in the official statements regarding Ukrainians on their own losses, which I demonstrated. You've left out numerous other bits and outright lied on a lot because you're being fundamentally dishonest on this.
 
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History Learner

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You know, I do wonder at what point you'll stop doubling down, and consider the fact that you may be wrong.
Because I'm not, it's that simple. I know it's hard to swallow, but that's the indisputable fact. To state my minimum conditions for Russian victory for later usage, the entirety of the DPR and LPR will be taken, and Ukraine will be forced to recognize Crimea.

Except... Russia doesn't have an overwhelming dominance in industry...
Over Ukraine? It absolutely does, and I challenge you to prove otherwise.
 

WolfBear

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To state my minimum conditions for Russian victory for later usage, the entirety of the DPR and LPR will be taken, and Ukraine will be forced to recognize Crimea.
Are there going to be free and fair referendums in all of these places under UN auspices?
 

History Learner

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Yes, but then they would need to import Chinese shells to go with those Chinese artillery instead of using their own.

Also, China's not up for selling to Russia.
Is that why China has been sending military transports to Russian airports for the past week?


I agree China and Russia closing a deal on Power of Siberia 2 is another indicator China does not want to deal with Russia, as evidenced by their increasing purchases of Russian energy:

 

History Learner

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First shipments of Iranian drones reportedly arriving in Russia. There were some reports that some Russians were unsatisfied with the performance of the Iranian drones but it looks like the deal is going forward anyways. Apparently Iran will be shipping Russia 'hundreds' of drones of various types, including the Shahed and Mohajer types.


Since this time, they've proven themselves beyond expectations, to the absolute consternation of Ukraine. From the Wall Street Journal:

Russia has inflicted serious damage on Ukrainian forces with recently introduced Iranian drones, in its first wide-scale deployment of a foreign weapons system since the war began, Ukrainian commanders say.​
Over the past week, Shahed-136 delta-wing drones, repainted in Russian colors and rebranded as Geranium 2, started appearing over Ukrainian armor and artillery positions in the northeastern Kharkiv region, said Col. Rodion Kulagin, commander of artillery of Ukraine’s 92nd Mechanized Brigade.​
In his brigade’s operational area alone, the Iranian drones—which usually fly in pairs and then slam into their targets—have destroyed two 152-mm self-propelled howitzers, two 122-mm self-propelled howitzers, as well as two BTR armored infantry vehicles, he said.​
Before the current wide-scale use of the Shaheds, Russia carried out a test last month, striking a U.S.-supplied M777 155-mm towed howitzer with the drone, Col. Kulagin said. Another Iranian drone malfunctioned and was recovered, he said.​
So far, the Iranian drones seem to have been mostly deployed in the Kharkiv region, where the 92nd Brigade and other Ukrainian forces carried out a major offensive this month, retaking some 8,500 square kilometers, or roughly 3,300 square miles, of land occupied by Russia and seizing or destroying hundreds of Russian tanks, artillery pieces and armored carriers.​
“In other areas, the Russians have overwhelming artillery firepower, and they manage with that. Here, they no longer have that artillery advantage, and so they have started to resort to these drones,” Col. Kulagin said.​
Independent experts who examined photographs of recent drone wreckage from the Kharkiv region say that it appears to be Shahed-136, the latest evolution of Tehran’s delta-wing design.​
Scott Crino, founder and chief executive of Red Six Solutions LLC, a strategic consulting firm, said the Shahed-136 could provide Russia with a “potent counterweight” to the high-tech weapons systems, such as Himars missile launchers, that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine.​
 

Megadeath

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It is incredible to me that anyone would argue Russia are somehow winning, when they've lost so much of the territory they took and done practically nothing but retreat for so long. That their industry has any meaning, when they're sending 60+ year old tanks to the front, forced to buy Iranian drones and crowd source protective equipment, radios and GPS. That they have the political power to continue the war indefinitely when they've completely exhausted the pool of willing recruits and been forced to resort to a draft they promised wouldn't happen, sparking mass protest.

Hell, at this point, if Ukrain completely surrendered tomorrow and Russia got everything they could possibly want, it would hardly be anything other than a ridiculously pyrrhic victory. Their offensive forces are shattered, they've lost equipment on a scale not seen in 50 years and at a faster rate than in any conflict since WW2. Their morale, self image and international reputation are mud. They've pushed two previously neutral countries into NATO. They've taken disproportionate losses amongst their supposedly most elite forces... And, for what? What could they possibly get out of it that justifies those losses? Some agriculture and resources? But, we're told the rodinia has far more than enough of those. Manufacturing capacity? But they've got plenty of that too, and they're turning that to rubble everywhere they liberate! Distance from NATO? Well, shame about Finland then, and there's still Estonia and Latvia. Population? Lol, what are they going to do, actual slavery? I don't see Ukrainians being willing and productive Russian citizens any time soon. So... What?

Seriously, NK responded to claims they'd sold Russia ammo by saying they never had and never would, and it was a lie to tarnish their reputation. Like, I don't believe them but when NK think that association with you makes them look bad, man, you must be pretty fucked.
 

History Learner

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It is incredible to me that anyone would argue Russia are somehow winning, when they've lost so much of the territory they took and done practically nothing but retreat for so long. That their industry has any meaning, when they're sending 60+ year old tanks to the front, forced to buy Iranian drones and crowd source protective equipment, radios and GPS. That they have the political power to continue the war indefinitely when they've completely exhausted the pool of willing recruits and been forced to resort to a draft they promised wouldn't happen, sparking mass protest.
Or, perhaps we can realize this is either all false or extremely misrepresented to such an extent as to make it false?

The idea they've been retreating for so long? I mean, if you consider a single week a long time, sure, but from April onward they had nothing but victory. They cleared out all of the LPR by the start of July and and were making gains towards Nikolaev throughout August. That's roughly five months of nothing but success.

Their industry has no meaning? An odd claim given they've managed to not only test, produce, and combat use a hypersonic missile before the United States could even get a successful model down pat. How about the fact they've been able to mass produce regular cruise missiles, again a feat the West is not capable of? Or we can talk about how Russia produces more shells in a single year than the United States does in 10; I'm not even joking.

Crowd sourcing equipment? Would you like to talk about how the National Bank of Ukraine had to open an account to crowd fund the AFU lol? Russia hasn't had to do that. While you're at it, you might want to look at this Ukrainian unit raising funds via writing messages on artillery shells:


Also of research interest for you might be why they aren't going by their unit name, but instead using their official designation. Surely nice people they are, right? Not at all bad people in this unit, no sir.....

Political will, eh? Well first, you might find it useful to go see that volunteer rates have continued and more people than ordered showed up to be mobilized voluntarily; you might find it useful to review how I showed Husky Khan got duped repeatedly on Twitter to see just how much misinformation surrounding this there was. You could also review what the actual data says too:
But one thing that hasn’t seemed to change is Russian public opinion. According to the Levada Center, an independent polling agency in Moscow, more than three-quarters of Russians continue to support what the Kremlin calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, with just 18% opposed. Putin’s approval rating is similarly high at 83%, a figure that has only risen since the war began. A slightly smaller, but nonetheless consistent, majority of the public believe that the country is headed in the right direction.​

Hell, at this point, if Ukrain completely surrendered tomorrow and Russia got everything they could possibly want, it would hardly be anything other than a ridiculously pyrrhic victory. Their offensive forces are shattered, they've lost equipment on a scale not seen in 50 years and at a faster rate than in any conflict since WW2.
In the delusions of some in this thread, sure, but in reality no. Equipment losses? Case in point of this is Oryx is claiming 234 destroyed planes, Pentagon came out and said it was actually just 55. Earlier this year I noted how Oryx was hilariously claiming the Ukrainians had only lost 100 tanks when the Ukrainians themselves came out to admit to 400. When you actually compare data, you find most of those equipment loss claims don't hold up under scrutiny.

But, equipment doesn't tell the full story does it? For that, we need to consider formations, and in that we can safely say, without even needing to looking at the units in Ukraine, Russian retains significant combat power. Let's go through formations of an offensive nature that have not been sent to Ukraine:
  • Of the 10 Combined Arms Armies, only three were assigned to Ukraine.
  • 5 Army Corps, none of which have been assigned to Ukraine.
  • Of the three Tank Armies, only 1st GTA was sent in.
Don't just take my word for it, here's the Pentagon saying the same thing:

U.S. officials, providing a quiet check to Ukrainian exuberance, said that while Ukrainian troops have performed better in offensive operations than even their American backers had anticipated, those forces will encounter a period of intense fighting in the lead-up to winter as part of what they expect to be a “nonlinear” trajectory for the war.​
A senior State Department official, who like other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal planning, said Thursday that while Ukrainian forces had proven they can reverse advances made by Russia following President Vladimir Putin’s Feb. 24 invasion, Russia retained a potent force.​
“They have significant equipment and arms and munitions positioned in the occupied territories, not to mention what they have in Russia,” the official said. “And so it is far from over, despite the momentum.”​
Their morale, self image and international reputation are mud.
We've already disproved the first two, the last one is likewise false as well. No one outside the Western Bloc joined the sanctions; in fact, they increased trading with Russia. Hell, let's look inside Europe itself to see the effects of the war:
  • Bulgaria and Montenegro both elected Pro-Russian governments
  • Hungary is increasingly leaning towards Russia.
  • 52% of Slovaks are supportive of Russia, and the party likely to take power is likewise.
  • The ex FM of Romania is openly calling for dismemberment of Ukraine, and is currently polling in the lead there.
  • There's been Pro Peace/Pro Russia mass protests in Czechia and Germany.
  • The coalition likely to take power in Italy has significant Pro Russian elements.
So much for the isolation, eh?

They've pushed two previously neutral countries into NATO.
Except they haven't, because neither Turkey nor Hungary have voted to approve their membership. Maybe it was a bad idea to piss off Hungary, eh?

They've taken disproportionate losses amongst their supposedly most elite forces... And, for what? What could they possibly get out of it that justifies those losses? Some agriculture and resources? But, we're told the rodinia has far more than enough of those. Manufacturing capacity? But they've got plenty of that too, and they're turning that to rubble everywhere they liberate! Distance from NATO? Well, shame about Finland then, and there's still Estonia and Latvia. Population? Lol, what are they going to do, actual slavery? I don't see Ukrainians being willing and productive Russian citizens any time soon. So... What?
Seriously, NK responded to claims they'd sold Russia ammo by saying they never had and never would, and it was a lie to tarnish their reputation. Like, I don't believe them but when NK think that association with you makes them look bad, man, you must be pretty fucked.
An odd claim, given not even the United States stopped trading with Russia:

President Joe Biden promised to inflict pain and deal a crushing blow on Vladimir Putin through trade restrictions on commodities like vodka, diamonds and gasoline in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine six months ago. But hundreds of other types of unsanctioned goods worth billions of dollars, including those found on the ship bound for Baltimore from St. Petersburg, Russia, continue to flow into US ports.​
The Associated Press found more than 3,600 shipments of wood, metals, rubber and other goods have arrived at US ports from Russia since it began launching missiles and airstrikes into its neighbor in February. That's a significant drop from the same period in 2021 when about 6,000 shipments arrived, but it still adds up to more than $1 billion worth of commerce a month.​
Even the EU is now relaxing in trading too:

A U-turn by the European Union that’s allowing Russian coal to move more freely has led to uncertainty in insurance and shipping markets about whether a key part of the bloc’s oil sanctions could also be watered down.​
The EU published new guidance this week saying that the transfer of coal and fertilizer to countries outside the bloc is now allowed, citing energy security concerns. That followed an intervention in August that surprised insurers and shipowners because it had indicated a full prohibition on Russian coal shipments.​

As for North Korea, it's weird you claim they don't want anything to do with Russia, give they were one of the countries that has recognized the DPR and LPR lol.
 

Megadeath

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Or, perhaps we can realize this is either all false or extremely misrepresented to such an extent as to make it false?

The idea they've been retreating for so long? I mean, if you consider a single week a long time, sure, but from April onward they had nothing but victory. They cleared out all of the LPR by the start of July and and were making gains towards Nikolaev throughout August. That's roughly five months of nothing but success.

Their industry has no meaning? An odd claim given they've managed to not only test, produce, and combat use a hypersonic missile before the United States could even get a successful model down pat. How about the fact they've been able to mass produce regular cruise missiles, again a feat the West is not capable of? Or we can talk about how Russia produces more shells in a single year than the United States does in 10; I'm not even joking.

Crowd sourcing equipment? Would you like to talk about how the National Bank of Ukraine had to open an account to crowd fund the AFU lol? Russia hasn't had to do that. While you're at it, you might want to look at this Ukrainian unit raising funds via writing messages on artillery shells:


Also of research interest for you might be why they aren't going by their unit name, but instead using their official designation. Surely nice people they are, right? Not at all bad people in this unit, no sir.....

Political will, eh? Well first, you might find it useful to go see that volunteer rates have continued and more people than ordered showed up to be mobilized voluntarily; you might find it useful to review how I showed Husky Khan got duped repeatedly on Twitter to see just how much misinformation surrounding this there was. You could also review what the actual data says too:
But one thing that hasn’t seemed to change is Russian public opinion. According to the Levada Center, an independent polling agency in Moscow, more than three-quarters of Russians continue to support what the Kremlin calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, with just 18% opposed. Putin’s approval rating is similarly high at 83%, a figure that has only risen since the war began. A slightly smaller, but nonetheless consistent, majority of the public believe that the country is headed in the right direction.​



In the delusions of some in this thread, sure, but in reality no. Equipment losses? Case in point of this is Oryx is claiming 234 destroyed planes, Pentagon came out and said it was actually just 55. Earlier this year I noted how Oryx was hilariously claiming the Ukrainians had only lost 100 tanks when the Ukrainians themselves came out to admit to 400. When you actually compare data, you find most of those equipment loss claims don't hold up under scrutiny.

But, equipment doesn't tell the full story does it? For that, we need to consider formations, and in that we can safely say, without even needing to looking at the units in Ukraine, Russian retains significant combat power. Let's go through formations of an offensive nature that have not been sent to Ukraine:
  • Of the 10 Combined Arms Armies, only three were assigned to Ukraine.
  • 5 Army Corps, none of which have been assigned to Ukraine.
  • Of the three Tank Armies, only 1st GTA was sent in.
Don't just take my word for it, here's the Pentagon saying the same thing:

U.S. officials, providing a quiet check to Ukrainian exuberance, said that while Ukrainian troops have performed better in offensive operations than even their American backers had anticipated, those forces will encounter a period of intense fighting in the lead-up to winter as part of what they expect to be a “nonlinear” trajectory for the war.​
A senior State Department official, who like other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal planning, said Thursday that while Ukrainian forces had proven they can reverse advances made by Russia following President Vladimir Putin’s Feb. 24 invasion, Russia retained a potent force.​
“They have significant equipment and arms and munitions positioned in the occupied territories, not to mention what they have in Russia,” the official said. “And so it is far from over, despite the momentum.”​


We've already disproved the first two, the last one is likewise false as well. No one outside the Western Bloc joined the sanctions; in fact, they increased trading with Russia. Hell, let's look inside Europe itself to see the effects of the war:
  • Bulgaria and Montenegro both elected Pro-Russian governments
  • Hungary is increasingly leaning towards Russia.
  • 52% of Slovaks are supportive of Russia, and the party likely to take power is likewise.
  • The ex FM of Romania is openly calling for dismemberment of Ukraine, and is currently polling in the lead there.
  • There's been Pro Peace/Pro Russia mass protests in Czechia and Germany.
  • The coalition likely to take power in Italy has significant Pro Russian elements.
So much for the isolation, eh?



Except they haven't, because neither Turkey nor Hungary have voted to approve their membership. Maybe it was a bad idea to piss off Hungary, eh?




An odd claim, given not even the United States stopped trading with Russia:

President Joe Biden promised to inflict pain and deal a crushing blow on Vladimir Putin through trade restrictions on commodities like vodka, diamonds and gasoline in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine six months ago. But hundreds of other types of unsanctioned goods worth billions of dollars, including those found on the ship bound for Baltimore from St. Petersburg, Russia, continue to flow into US ports.​
The Associated Press found more than 3,600 shipments of wood, metals, rubber and other goods have arrived at US ports from Russia since it began launching missiles and airstrikes into its neighbor in February. That's a significant drop from the same period in 2021 when about 6,000 shipments arrived, but it still adds up to more than $1 billion worth of commerce a month.​
Even the EU is now relaxing in trading too:

A U-turn by the European Union that’s allowing Russian coal to move more freely has led to uncertainty in insurance and shipping markets about whether a key part of the bloc’s oil sanctions could also be watered down.​
The EU published new guidance this week saying that the transfer of coal and fertilizer to countries outside the bloc is now allowed, citing energy security concerns. That followed an intervention in August that surprised insurers and shipowners because it had indicated a full prohibition on Russian coal shipments.​

As for North Korea, it's weird you claim they don't want anything to do with Russia, give they were one of the countries that has recognized the DPR and LPR lol.
TL;DR. Also, just plain full of dumb.

As for the last, from official DPRK statement: "We have never exported weapons or ammunition to Russia before and we will not plan to export them,” the official said. It is not sure from where the rumour originated which the US is spreading, but it is aimed at tarnishing the DPRK’s image.” So, what I actually claimed is true, not so odd after all. :LOL:
 

Zachowon

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Norskies are saying they would not stopp down to supplying Russia.
 

Husky_Khan

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Mobilization Porn:

Article from the New York Times:

Say some...

New York Times said:
Mothers, wives and children were saying tearful goodbyes in remote regions as officials — in some cases, ordinary schoolteachers — delivered draft notices to houses and apartment blocks. In mountainous eastern Siberia, the Russian news media reported, school buses were being commandeered to move troops to training grounds.

Russian officials said the call-up would be limited to people with combat experience. But the net appeared wider, and some men decided it was best to head for the borders.

Yanina Nimayeva, a journalist from the Buryatia region of Siberia, said that her husband, a father of five and an employee in the emergency department in the regional capital, had been inexplicably called up. She said he received a summons to an urgent 4 a.m. meeting where it was announced that a train had been organized to bring men to the city of Chita. “My husband is 38 years old, he is not in the reserve, he did not serve,” Ms. Nimayeva said in a video addressed to regional officials.
New York Times said:
A regional activist in Yakutsk, the capital of the Yakutia region, described draftees being taken by airplane out of remote Arctic villages. “They have planted panic and fear everywhere,” she said in a phone interview, asking that her name be withheld for fear of retribution.

In the Buryatia region, teachers have been tasked with distributing draft notices, according to Vladimir Budaev, an activist with the Free Buryatia Foundation, an antiwar group based abroad. An acquaintance there received his summons at 11 p.m. on Wednesday from a teacher knocking on the door, he said.

Say Others...

New York Times said:
The call-up is being managed by local military commissariats that, according to Russia’s defense minister, have some 25 million draft-eligible adults on their rolls. But some 10,000 Russians arrived at military enlistment offices even before being summoned, prompted by Mr. Putin’s announcement, the military’s general staff claimed, according to Interfax, a Russian news agency.
TBF Both Can Be True.

The Georgia-Russia Crossing:


The Mobilized Individuals Seem Eager To Fight! They Can't Even Wait for the Plane to Land!


The question then is if they can make it to the plane!


Or off the bus.


TL;DR. Also, just plain full of dumb.
Essay length pasta posts no one reads probably just mean the dudes just a disaffected College Student. No offense to the many disaffected College Students here (or ex-disaffacted College Students). :p
 
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LordsFire

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Because I'm not, it's that simple. I know it's hard to swallow, but that's the indisputable fact. To state my minimum conditions for Russian victory for later usage, the entirety of the DPR and LPR will be taken, and Ukraine will be forced to recognize Crimea.
No, it isn't an indisputable fact. You're just warping every bit of evidence to fit the conclusion that you like.

Russia might win. This mobilization might give them the surge in strength that they need to turn the tides of war, which is necessary, because they are very clearly losing right now. Unlike you, I'm not blinded by some pre-conceived conclusion, so I'm capable of seeing that the outcome I do not like is still entirely possible.

However, at this point it also is not likely. Ukraine spent months letting the Russians throw away lives, material, and ammunition to gain tiny bits of land piece by piece. It certainly took losses as well, retreating gradually from prepared position to prepared position in grinding attritional warfare, but the Kharkiv offensive very clearly demonstrates that this was a deliberate strategic decision.

While Russia was tapping out every resource it had, and going hat in hand to the friggin' Iranians and North Koreans for more war material, the Ukrainians let their new recruits go through long training cycles in the West, training up on new equipment and doctrine.

Then Ukraine deployed that strength to crushing strategic effect, retaking in days land and cities that it took the Russians months to conquer, seizing stockpiles of war material as they did so. The Kharkiv offensive proved that the counterattacks around Kyiv that drove the Russians out were not a fluke, that this is something the Ukrainians are capable of doing repeatedly, and something that Russia has not been able to repeat without the strategic surprise they got through invading another nation without even declaring war on it.

Of course, the Kharkiv offensive doesn't end the war. The Kyiv offensive didn't, and even if the slower-paced Kherson offensive is as smashing a success as well, that won't end the war either. Russia still occupies a huge chunk of Ukrainian territory, and judging by Putin's decision to push forth 'referendums,' he's planning on claiming those occupied territories as sovereign Russian soil, consequences be damned.

The war isn't over, and unless something even more crushing than the Kharkiv offensive happens, or someone succeeds at removing Putin from power, it isn't going to end any time soon.

The problem Russia has though, is that while it can do the traditional Russian thing and throw more men at the problem, they have no demonstrated capability to train those men effectively, utilize effective maneuver doctrine in the field, or most important of all, convince the Ukrainians to surrender.

It is very, very clear that the Ukrainians have a stronger will to fight than the Russians, and that is one of the key factors in who wins a war.
 

Vaermina

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In the delusions of some in this thread, sure, but in reality no. Equipment losses? Case in point of this is Oryx is claiming 234 destroyed planes, Pentagon came out and said it was actually just 55. Earlier this year I noted how Oryx was hilariously claiming the Ukrainians had only lost 100 tanks when the Ukrainians themselves came out to admit to 400. When you actually compare data, you find most of those equipment loss claims don't hold up under scrutiny.
No... The Pentagon claimed there were 55 planes shot down...

But Oryx's numbers take take into account all aircraft, not just planes, and includes those that were on the ground when they were destroyed.
 

Captain X

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Or, perhaps we can realize this is either all false or extremely misrepresented to such an extent as to make it false?

The idea they've been retreating for so long? I mean, if you consider a single week a long time, sure, but from April onward they had nothing but victory. They cleared out all of the LPR by the start of July and and were making gains towards Nikolaev throughout August. That's roughly five months of nothing but success.

Their industry has no meaning? An odd claim given they've managed to not only test, produce, and combat use a hypersonic missile before the United States could even get a successful model down pat. How about the fact they've been able to mass produce regular cruise missiles, again a feat the West is not capable of? Or we can talk about how Russia produces more shells in a single year than the United States does in 10; I'm not even joking.

Crowd sourcing equipment? Would you like to talk about how the National Bank of Ukraine had to open an account to crowd fund the AFU lol? Russia hasn't had to do that. While you're at it, you might want to look at this Ukrainian unit raising funds via writing messages on artillery shells:


Also of research interest for you might be why they aren't going by their unit name, but instead using their official designation. Surely nice people they are, right? Not at all bad people in this unit, no sir.....

Political will, eh? Well first, you might find it useful to go see that volunteer rates have continued and more people than ordered showed up to be mobilized voluntarily; you might find it useful to review how I showed Husky Khan got duped repeatedly on Twitter to see just how much misinformation surrounding this there was. You could also review what the actual data says too:
But one thing that hasn’t seemed to change is Russian public opinion. According to the Levada Center, an independent polling agency in Moscow, more than three-quarters of Russians continue to support what the Kremlin calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, with just 18% opposed. Putin’s approval rating is similarly high at 83%, a figure that has only risen since the war began. A slightly smaller, but nonetheless consistent, majority of the public believe that the country is headed in the right direction.​



In the delusions of some in this thread, sure, but in reality no. Equipment losses? Case in point of this is Oryx is claiming 234 destroyed planes, Pentagon came out and said it was actually just 55. Earlier this year I noted how Oryx was hilariously claiming the Ukrainians had only lost 100 tanks when the Ukrainians themselves came out to admit to 400. When you actually compare data, you find most of those equipment loss claims don't hold up under scrutiny.

But, equipment doesn't tell the full story does it? For that, we need to consider formations, and in that we can safely say, without even needing to looking at the units in Ukraine, Russian retains significant combat power. Let's go through formations of an offensive nature that have not been sent to Ukraine:
  • Of the 10 Combined Arms Armies, only three were assigned to Ukraine.
  • 5 Army Corps, none of which have been assigned to Ukraine.
  • Of the three Tank Armies, only 1st GTA was sent in.
Don't just take my word for it, here's the Pentagon saying the same thing:

U.S. officials, providing a quiet check to Ukrainian exuberance, said that while Ukrainian troops have performed better in offensive operations than even their American backers had anticipated, those forces will encounter a period of intense fighting in the lead-up to winter as part of what they expect to be a “nonlinear” trajectory for the war.​
A senior State Department official, who like other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal planning, said Thursday that while Ukrainian forces had proven they can reverse advances made by Russia following President Vladimir Putin’s Feb. 24 invasion, Russia retained a potent force.​
“They have significant equipment and arms and munitions positioned in the occupied territories, not to mention what they have in Russia,” the official said. “And so it is far from over, despite the momentum.”​


We've already disproved the first two, the last one is likewise false as well. No one outside the Western Bloc joined the sanctions; in fact, they increased trading with Russia. Hell, let's look inside Europe itself to see the effects of the war:
  • Bulgaria and Montenegro both elected Pro-Russian governments
  • Hungary is increasingly leaning towards Russia.
  • 52% of Slovaks are supportive of Russia, and the party likely to take power is likewise.
  • The ex FM of Romania is openly calling for dismemberment of Ukraine, and is currently polling in the lead there.
  • There's been Pro Peace/Pro Russia mass protests in Czechia and Germany.
  • The coalition likely to take power in Italy has significant Pro Russian elements.
So much for the isolation, eh?



Except they haven't, because neither Turkey nor Hungary have voted to approve their membership. Maybe it was a bad idea to piss off Hungary, eh?




An odd claim, given not even the United States stopped trading with Russia:

President Joe Biden promised to inflict pain and deal a crushing blow on Vladimir Putin through trade restrictions on commodities like vodka, diamonds and gasoline in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine six months ago. But hundreds of other types of unsanctioned goods worth billions of dollars, including those found on the ship bound for Baltimore from St. Petersburg, Russia, continue to flow into US ports.​
The Associated Press found more than 3,600 shipments of wood, metals, rubber and other goods have arrived at US ports from Russia since it began launching missiles and airstrikes into its neighbor in February. That's a significant drop from the same period in 2021 when about 6,000 shipments arrived, but it still adds up to more than $1 billion worth of commerce a month.​
Even the EU is now relaxing in trading too:

A U-turn by the European Union that’s allowing Russian coal to move more freely has led to uncertainty in insurance and shipping markets about whether a key part of the bloc’s oil sanctions could also be watered down.​
The EU published new guidance this week saying that the transfer of coal and fertilizer to countries outside the bloc is now allowed, citing energy security concerns. That followed an intervention in August that surprised insurers and shipowners because it had indicated a full prohibition on Russian coal shipments.​

As for North Korea, it's weird you claim they don't want anything to do with Russia, give they were one of the countries that has recognized the DPR and LPR lol.
I wonder, are you at least paid to shill for Russia? It seems to me that you put in an awful lot of work for it, so I hope you're getting paid for it. :ROFLMAO:
 

Lord Sovereign

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I wonder, are you at least paid to shill for Russia? It seems to me that you put in an awful lot of work for it, so I hope you're getting paid for it. :ROFLMAO:
More likely he's managed to get himself emotionally invested in a Russian victory as getting one over on "muh globalism." Childish tribalism at its very finest. Many on the Right have made this error: the credibility ending mistake of transplanting the culture war onto Eastern European geopolitics.
 

strunkenwhite

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Someone posted some Protestor stats. I tried hyperlinking it earlier but my phone wasn't cooperating.
Interesting. If those numbers are accurate it seems more likely coincidental than targeted.
Ukraine just got hundreds of pieces of equipment from Russia..
Captured equipment will only get you so far, even with an enemy as cooperative as Russian forces.
 
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