Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

[History Learner]

I was referring to the Byzantine Levant territories. Originally, I was going for the Crimea and the Pontic Steppe as the first site of a Byzantine "Normandy" before realizing its vulnerability to Pecheneg and Cuman raiders. It's also why Nova Anglia (basically medieval New England) didn't last that long.

Although come to think of it, is it possible to have an Anglo-Saxon entity created inside the Byzantine Empire that would serve for Anglo-Saxon opponents of the Norman dynasty of England?

Oh I know, I was just suggesting that region as an alternative if you wanted "virgin land" so to speak. Certainly Crimea is highly defensible, while the Pontic Steppe could be made to be with the right doctrine and resources.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

One of the biggest things I wanted to reboot was one of my Russia-centric TLs where Russia is more powerful in the Asia-Pacific region. The only thing is the PoD, since I kept on changing it. First, it was from preventing the arrest of the German agents that IOTL could have played a role in the construction of the small port of Ivangorod, to the Battle of Orsha ending in a draw, to even having Miguel da Paz surviving. Too many to list, but in addition to it, there was also:

- Prince Afonso of Portugal surviving or avoiding the horseback riding accident that caused his OTL death. With a healthier husband for Princess Isabella of Asturias instead of Manuel I, butterflying Miguel da Paz in the princess, the unification of the three Iberian Kingdoms under the banner of the House of Avis would have been accomplished.

- Girolamo Savonarola deciding to not trigger the Italian Wars by simply moving to France instead of taking over Florence, which eventually resulted in his arrest and execution. This would have resulted in a different kind of Catholic Reformation, unlike the OTL Reformation that split the Western Christian Church.

- Or another potential starting PoD: Mary of Burgundy avoiding her own horseback riding accident that results in more children born to her and Maximillian of Austria. This would have resulted in the Burgundian Inheritance going straight to the Austrian Hapsburgs instead of the Spanish Hapsburgs.

 

[Buba]

potential starting PoD: Mary of Burgundy avoiding her own horseback riding accident that results in more children born to her and Maximillian of Austria. This would have resulted in the Burgundian Inheritance going straight to the Austrian Hapsburgs instead of the Spanish Hapsburgs.

Even Mary having two sons and not a son and daughter changes things. One son gets the Iberian Kingdoms while the other the Netherlands and Habsburg lands in Germany.
Same can be accomplished by Filip dying later, having more sons, etc.

one of my Russia-centric TLs where Russia is more powerful in the Asia-Pacific region. The only thing is the PoD, since I kept on changing it.

You can start quite late, even in XVIIIth century. Fewer wars in the west and/or swifter defeat of Turkey and thus more resources for a push east.
But earlier is better. IMO the Kazakh steppe could had been conquered a century or two earlier. The tricky part is holding on to the Amur valley versus the Manchus who are just next door. So maybe an early/mid XVII century POD - when the Manchus are busy in China?
So - sane Ivan the Terrible, no Livonian Wars, no Oprichina, no Smuta?

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

True, although I had in mind an Avis Iberia, and either England, or even Poland-Lithuania receiving a Hapsburg claimant who is a possible ATL descendant of Maximillian of Austria and Mary of Burgundy.

The earlier, the better, which I agree with. Having Kazan fall before the 1530s is crucial, since it does open what is essentially a Muscovite Grand Duchy to an earlier expansion into the Urals. As for the Far East, I was going with the idea of butterflying the Manchu conquest with a stronger Ming or even the Shun Dynasty arising.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

A while ago, I attempted to write a TL that focused on the life of Iosef Dzhugashvili if his mother died giving birth to him and his father died from a fight in a bar (OTL Stalin's father was a notorious alcoholic who wanted his son to become a cobbler, but his mother wanted him to enter a religious career). Titled "Orphan Joe", it explores how not-Stalin would have turned out if he was orphaned and raised in an orphanage. There is a big chance that 'Orphan Joe' would end up being sent to an asylum-orphanage (basically an orphanage run by the Imperial Russian military) where he ends up having a military career. Of course, we wouldn't know how Orphan Joe would turn out, but he would be a huge asset to Russia should an alternate WWI break out. It's a new take on the whole What If Would-Be Dictator Fought in WWI kind of thing, with Hitler being a WWI veteran, Tito being another one, etc.

 

[Zyobot]

'Bourbon Democrats Control The Democratic Party Longer'.

For one, I'm guessing you'll need to butterfly or discredit William James Bryan somehow, since he's America's head silverite at this time. I've also seen it suggested that having the Republicans be the incumbent party during the Panic of 1893 would lead to an outcome like this, albeit more as a runoff consequence than as a PoD in of itself.

 

[Zyobot]

'2020 Russian Federation To 1980'.

For one, it'd be interesting to see how Putin interacts with Carter, now that the USSR is out of the picture.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

An old ASB scenario that I had thought up a while ago: "1914 Austria-Hungary ISOTed to 1956", which involves ASBs sending Austria-Hungary on the same day as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand (the event hasn't happened yet) to 1956, on the eve of the Hungarian Uprising. We could throw in 1914 German Empire being ISOTed to 1956 as well.

 

[Buba]

'2020 Russian Federation To 1980'.

For one, it'd be interesting to see how Putin interacts with Carter, now that the USSR is out of the picture.

The fun part is the large swath of USSR Republics and Warsaw Pact countries between Russia and the West ... with most of the USSR's conventional forces and tactical nukes.
How fast and to what extent does Putin exert his power over 1980 USSR military? How bloody does the unrest inside the Warsaw Pact counties get ? How do the local commies fold - or not? - think about Romania ...

The good thing is that the Cold War ends there and then. That or its Nuclear Winter.

An old ASB scenario that I had thought up a while ago: "1914 Austria-Hungary ISOTed to 1956", which involves ASBs sending Austria-Hungary on the same day as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand (the event hasn't happened yet) to 1956, on the eve of the Hungarian Uprising. We could throw in 1914 German Empire being ISOTed to 1956 as well.

You overwrite half the Warsaw Pact and a bit of the USSR with the first premise, and almost all of the former in the 2nd.
And - in the latter case - all US ground troops and most of its AF in Europe ... well, the Soviet Army in the GDR and Poland is gone as well.

 

[stevep]

The fun part is the large swath of USSR Republics and Warsaw Pact countries between Russia and the West ... with most of the USSR's conventional forces and tactical nukes.
How fast and to what extent does Putin exert his power over 1980 USSR military? How bloody does the unrest inside the Warsaw Pact counties get ? How do the local commies fold - or not? - think about Romania ...

The good thing is that the Cold War ends there and then. That or its Nuclear Winter.

Very true especially since 2020 Russia for all the nationalism Putin has sought to stir up still has a lot of mistrust/hostility to communism so I would expect a clash between the 2020 Russia and the 1980 rump WP. Its likely to get bloody and probably end up with the collapse of the Soviet empire but how badly the collatreal damage is and how much of the rest of the world it takes with it is a define worry. The 1980 units have a lot more forces and especially nukes but the 2020 ones have some clear tech edges. Although things like hacking groups are suddenly going to find themselves pretty much redundant as there's nothing like an internet to work on.

One question here might be how much info diplomats and other groups from outside Russia could get out to their down-time nations to help in terms of both trying to get the down-timers to understand what's happened and also help close the tech gap.

You overwrite half the Warsaw Pact and a bit of the USSR with the first premise, and almost all of the former in the 2nd.
And - in the latter case - all US ground troops and most of its AF in Europe ... well, the Soviet Army in the GDR and Poland is gone as well.

That would also be very messy. In the 2nd case all allied NATO forces have disappeared but so has most of the WP and the Red army's front line forces. They will still have a lot in Ukraine and Baltic areas as well as the Pacific if brought across and 2nd and 3rd rate reserve units so could see 1914 Austria and Germany as both an affront and very vulnerable victims, although this would pretty much force a western response if they do that.

Germany of course will include territory that belongs to France, Belgium and Denmark so those countries will have some issues, especially for France. Plus German settlement is a lot further east than it was in 1956 so that will be an issue. Furthermore at this point Britain and France are somewhat occupied with the Suez crisis.

 

[Buba]

I wonder if the most plausible outcome of
'2020 Russian Federation To 1980'.
might not be the 1980 USSR military taking over Russia. Nukes could fly?

1914 A-H (and Germany) to 1956 - I'd love Eisenhower to back them against the USSR (screw you, France!).

 

[PsihoKekec]

1914 AH and Germany would get steamrolled by the USSR. They have no concept of anti-tank and anti-aircraft defense.

 

[Buba]

1914 AH and Germany would get steamrolled by the USSR. They have no concept of anti-tank and anti-aircraft defense.

Yes.
But Eisenhower starts printing posters of Wilhelm II and Franz Josef
"They are fighting for freedom. They are your friends."

 

[stevep]

I wonder if the most plausible outcome of
'2020 Russian Federation To 1980'.
might not be the 1980 USSR military taking over Russia. Nukes could fly?

The down-timers have massive more forces, especially considering some of the details you hear about how few a/c and the like 2020 Russia actually has operational. However their distinctly cut off from supply bases in many cases plus they will want to hold down eastern Europe and also what happens if some areas such as Ukraine or Kazakhstan for instance decide they fancy being independent of Moscow - either 2020 or 1980 versions?

Given you have two brutal autocratic states, with in both cases the loser facing at best fleeing for their lives I fear someone will start throwing nukes. At which point all bets are off. If Ukraine and Kazakhstan stay loyal to the union then they probably have a similar number of ICBMs to 2020 Russia. Although the down times will have a lot more tactical nukes. Not sure what will happen with SSBMs as the subs will be from the USSR but their bases are all in 2020 Russia. Assuming that either/both sides are able to contact them! If not then there's a danger some captain assumes they can't contact Moscow is because a massive nuclear war has broken out and start launching missiles at the west.

Overall if it comes to a war to the end - and ignoring nukes for the moment - the 1980 forces probably have an edge but their rule over 2020 Russia could become rather chaotic.

1914 A-H (and Germany) to 1956 - I'd love Eisenhower to back them against the USSR (screw you, France!).

Don't forget it screws Poland far more. Even if Austrian Galatia and German Posen are transferred to Poland as part of any peace settlement - assuming the western powers win most of Prussia along with Pomerania and Silesia are still majority German. While an independent Poland might not get a lot of the eastern territory it picked up from its defeat of the Bolsheviks in 1920 - nor if their sensible would they want it. As such Poland is going to be a lot smaller.

I would suspect that for disputed territories plebiscites would be arrange but how they would develop I don't know. Also whether the Hapsburg empire survives and in what form?

 

[stevep]

Yes.
But Eisenhower starts printing posters of Wilhelm II and Franz Josef
"They are fighting for freedom. They are your friends."

That would be one hell of a sell. Especially with the experience of WWII and also for older people WWI in the US and western memory.

 

[Buba]

That would be one hell of a sell. Especially with the experience of WWII and also for older people WWI in the US and western memory.

FDR sold one of humanity's greatest monsters to the US public as the kindly "Uncle Joe".

If Ukraine and Kazakhstan stay loyal to the union then they probably have a similar number of ICBMs to 2020 Russia.

Aren't ICBM's a 1960s thing? This is the freefall nuke bomb era, I think.
Thinking of it, inside a few hours Putin knows how many nukes - and where - the comrades from 1956 possess.
I'd wager that not that many, BTW.

 

[stevep]

FDR sold one of humanity's greatest monsters to the US public as the kindly "Uncle Joe".

Radically different circumstances. The western powers wanted the Soviets to continue fighting to keep the bulk of the Axis forces engaged. Plus it wasn't only FDR. The predominantly Conservative government in Britain followed that path even earlier. Churchill's famous line, something like "If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a passing friendly reference to the devil" I think that was before Hitler invaded the USSR which next to his own empire and the Japanese one was the nearest to hell on earth at that time in terms of brutality.

Aren't ICBM's a 1960s thing? This is the freefall nuke bomb era, I think.
Thinking of it, inside a few hours Putin knows how many nukes - and where - the comrades from 1956 possess.
I'd wager that not that many, BTW.

You had me for a moment but then I remembered we're talking about two scenarios at the same time. Putin is facing 1980 rest of the Soviet empire not the 1956 one. Too easy to get confused as I nearly did by your reply.

In 1956 the west has a big, if not huge advantage in nukes and possibly equally importantly delivery systems but in 1980 its a lot closer. Definitely no ICBMs or SSBMs then and not sure if any shorter ranged nukes, at least that survived the ISOT.

 

[Buba]

LOL!
I am sooo confused by the two scenarios myself that I'm lost as to which one I was talking about!

 

[Zyobot]

'1984-Esque Blowout For Bush/Quayle 1988'.

I once saw it suggested that somehow giving Jesse Jackson the Democratic nomination could do the job, albeit with Bush winning "only" forty-eight states, with Hawaii and Iowa both voting Blue. Even so, this was only one person's prediction, and I'm curious as to any alternative routes or electoral results people have in mind here?

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Henry Bolingbroke dying during the Teutonic Order's invasion of Lithuania: I think that this could have a lasting effect on a longer reign of Richard II, albeit if he remained in his OTL behavior, I think that England might face a bloodier anarchy once he kicks the bucket. The real question is, who gets to succeed Richard II in the absence of Henry Bolingbroke?