Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

ATP

Well-known member
Władysław/Ulaslo died when his children were very young, cretinism not yet apparent.

i read,that his son was tailored to be idiot by his teachers - probably hired by Habsburgs.If so,second son would be the same - unless he would be teached in Poland.
In that case,Poland would come with help,and during Mochacz battle we get not draw,but second Orsza - when our noble levies massacred moscovites,which was not worst then turks./except jannisaries - but it was not enough of them to change anything/

In that case - we have PLC ruled by hungarian jagiellons,from 1569.No powerfull Ottomans,Hohenzollern or Moscov,no WW1 and 2,and Central and eastern Europe united under one dynasty.
Becouse they would retake Balkans from turks.
 

Buba

A total creep
I read,that his son was tailored to be idiot by his teachers - probably hired by Habsburgs.
No need to look for any outsider influence.
Had the 1523 assassination attempt against Zygmunt Stary/Sigismund I by a citizen unhappy about the just introduced sales tax on alcohol succeeded, then the Regency Council for Sigismund Augustus also is highly likely to raise a weak dum-dum as to prolong their influence for as long as possible.
 

ATP

Well-known member
No need to look for any outsider influence.
Had the 1523 assassination attempt against Zygmunt Stary/Sigismund I by a citizen unhappy about the just introduced sales tax on alcohol succeeded, then the Regency Council for Sigismund Augustus also is highly likely to raise a weak dum-dum as to prolong their influence for as long as possible.

Indeed - in OTL,that idiot King still go with army,betrayed by hungarian nobles,czech,Poland and Habsburgs.Only pope send money for mercaneries,and bishops come to fight.And almost all died.

So,it could be either Habsburgs or local aristocrats.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
@Buba @ATP @Marduk If the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth keeps its 1773 borders indefinitely (which requires no French Revolution at the very least, I think), is there any chance that it could aim to build a new port for itself in OTL's Latvia to compensate for Danzig's vulnerability (being completely surrounded by Prussia)?

Polish-Lithuanian_Commonwealth_1773-1789.PNG
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
@Zyobot @stevep @Skallagrim When's the earliest realistic point in time that we can make a South American transcontinental railroad happen? The biggest issue that I see with this is the sheer altitude/height of the Andes Mountains:

south-america-1804901_1280.png


This is also why I passionately believe that, unlike the US, Brazil simply couldn't expand all of the way to the Pacific. Its logistics simply wouldn't allow it even if it strongly wanted to do this.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
@Zyobot @stevep @Skallagrim When's the earliest realistic point in time that we can make a South American transcontinental railroad happen? The biggest issue that I see with this is the sheer altitude/height of the Andes Mountains:

south-america-1804901_1280.png


This is also why I passionately believe that, unlike the US, Brazil simply couldn't expand all of the way to the Pacific. Its logistics simply wouldn't allow it even if it strongly wanted to do this.
I don't think they have one today. Going through a vast expanse of tropical forest and then across the mountains is just a shitty prospect.

There is currently a railroad from São Paulo to Santa Fé do Sul, and a pretty vague idea of expanding that railroad to Cuiabá and then to Porto Velho. From there, it could cut to Pucallpa in Eastern Peru, and then North to the town of Sarameriza. Finally, from Sarameriza it could go South-West, across the most traversible part of the mountains, to Chiclayo (with local extensions to several ports along the coast).

There have been other proposals, but none seem to be going anywhere either, and this one only involves two governments. Plus, it has access to the best point where the Andes could be crossed. So I'd give this one the best odds... out of a collection of far-fetched proposals, none of which seem to be anywhere near the practical stage.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
I think the bigger problems for this are political and economic than technological.
The logistical issues are a money solvable problem. But the questions are, is that worth the money, and how do you get all the countries on the way to cooperate?
 

stevep

Well-known member
@Zyobot @stevep @Skallagrim When's the earliest realistic point in time that we can make a South American transcontinental railroad happen? The biggest issue that I see with this is the sheer altitude/height of the Andes Mountains:

south-america-1804901_1280.png


This is also why I passionately believe that, unlike the US, Brazil simply couldn't expand all of the way to the Pacific. Its logistics simply wouldn't allow it even if it strongly wanted to do this.

On the last point possibly a strong Brazil could have gained control of part of Bolivia, say in alliance with Chile at some stage which would have given it a Pacific port as the route would be significantly shorter there and the eastern terminal would be nearer the prime population centres for Brazil in Rio and San Paulo.

Of course there is also the cultural differences between the Andes plateau and the eastern lowlands and also between Portuguese and Spanish speaking lands [or at least the ruling elites].
 

gral

Well-known member
I don't think they have one today. Going through a vast expanse of tropical forest and then across the mountains is just a shitty prospect.

There is currently a railroad from São Paulo to Santa Fé do Sul, and a pretty vague idea of expanding that railroad to Cuiabá and then to Porto Velho. From there, it could cut to Pucallpa in Eastern Peru, and then North to the town of Sarameriza. Finally, from Sarameriza it could go South-West, across the most traversible part of the mountains, to Chiclayo (with local extensions to several ports along the coast).

There have been other proposals, but none seem to be going anywhere either, and this one only involves two governments. Plus, it has access to the best point where the Andes could be crossed. So I'd give this one the best odds... out of a collection of far-fetched proposals, none of which seem to be anywhere near the practical stage.
There is a proposal of a Transoceanic Railroad, with a (somewhat)different route: Campinorte on Goiás state(integration with the North-South Railroad) - Porto Velho(Rondônia state) - Cruzeiro do Sul(Acre state - while Cruzeiro do Sul isn't a border town, the territory of the Cruzeiro do Sul Municipality extends itself to the Peru-Brazil border). From there, it goes on to Pucallpa, and the rest of the route I haven't been able to find in a quick search. From Campinorte in the other direction, the Transoceanic Railroad continues on to Açú Harbour, on Rio de Janeiro state, thus integrating both Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Works on this railroad either have just started or haven't yet, and the Chinese are supposed to be investing on it(of course), but solely on the Cruzeiro do Sul-Campinorte section(because fuck integrating both oceans, the Chinese want a railroad to bring Brazilian soy and iron to Pacific ports).
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
There is a proposal of a Transoceanic Railroad, with a (somewhat)different route: Campinorte on Goiás state(integration with the North-South Railroad) - Porto Velho(Rondônia state) - Cruzeiro do Sul(Acre state - while Cruzeiro do Sul isn't a border town, the territory of the Cruzeiro do Sul Municipality extends itself to the Peru-Brazil border). From there, it goes on to Pucallpa, and the rest of the route I haven't been able to find in a quick search. From Campinorte in the other direction, the Transoceanic Railroad continues on to Açú Harbour, on Rio de Janeiro state, thus integrating both Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Works on this railroad either have just started or haven't yet, and the Chinese are supposed to be investing on it(of course), but solely on the Cruzeiro do Sul-Campinorte section(because fuck integrating both oceans, the Chinese want a railroad to bring Brazilian soy and iron to Pacific ports).

Interesting. Are there any news stories about this? Ideally in English, but if not, then I can use Google Translate.

Also, off-topic, but did Austrian Crown Lands have as much autonomy as US states have?

KaisertumOsterreich.png


 

gral

Well-known member
By the way, there is also another road(highway) proposal going from the port of Santos to Campo Grande, to Porto Murtinho in the Paraguay border, crossing into Paraguay through the Carmelo Peralta-Mariscal-Pozo Rondo(on the border with Argentina) route, going to Jujuy to cross the Andes and arriving at the Chilean port of Antofagasta.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Amazonian_Railway Wikipedia article is a stub, but has 2 or 3 links; also, you can go on to the page in Portuguese from there, which has more links to articles.

Thanks!

By the way, there is also another road(highway) proposal going from the port of Santos to Campo Grande, to Porto Murtinho in the Paraguay border, crossing into Paraguay through the Carmelo Peralta-Mariscal-Pozo Rondo(on the border with Argentina) route, going to Jujuy to cross the Andes and arriving at the Chilean port of Antofagasta.

Interesting.
 

Eparkhos

Well-known member
@Skallagrim

Re: Industrial Revolution in !China

On further reflection, I agree that I undershot the likely date of industrialization in Southern China by a significant measure, and your timeline seems much more plausible than mine.

Re: Persia

I agree with most of your points. However, one thing that I would like to note is how the steppe-conveyor-belt will function ITTL, with the HGE forming what's effectively a giant plug at the western end. I'm certain some groups would break through, only to be assimilated into the larger Hunno-Gothic polity, but I think that far more will be halted and kept further east than IOTL. I think the end result is probably much of OTL's Turkic migration (think the Bulgars, Hungarian, Pechenegs and Kipchaks) being redirected southward into Khorasan/Persia/the Middle East at large, and some of them will doubtless go eastward into India. I suspect this mass movement will depopulate much of Khorasan and lead to an earlier and more extensive Turkification of the region. There is more extensive stuff I will fill in later, when I have time. Thoughts?
 

ATP

Well-known member
On the last point possibly a strong Brazil could have gained control of part of Bolivia, say in alliance with Chile at some stage which would have given it a Pacific port as the route would be significantly shorter there and the eastern terminal would be nearer the prime population centres for Brazil in Rio and San Paulo.

Of course there is also the cultural differences between the Andes plateau and the eastern lowlands and also between Portuguese and Spanish speaking lands [or at least the ruling elites].

Not only.I read book of polish adventurer Wojciech Cejrowski about Amazonia - according to him,difference between amazonian amd mountain indian show in their songs-
Indian deom Andas song is like" she betrauyed me,i would kill her/myself/her lover/all "
Amazonian indian is like :
"she betrayed me,small loss,i would find better in no time"
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
I agree with most of your points. However, one thing that I would like to note is how the steppe-conveyor-belt will function ITTL, with the HGE forming what's effectively a giant plug at the western end. I'm certain some groups would break through, only to be assimilated into the larger Hunno-Gothic polity, but I think that far more will be halted and kept further east than IOTL. I think the end result is probably much of OTL's Turkic migration (think the Bulgars, Hungarian, Pechenegs and Kipchaks) being redirected southward into Khorasan/Persia/the Middle East at large, and some of them will doubtless go eastward into India. I suspect this mass movement will depopulate much of Khorasan and lead to an earlier and more extensive Turkification of the region. There is more extensive stuff I will fill in later, when I have time. Thoughts?
My thinking is as follows: in OTL, the Turkic invasions of Central Asia and beyond were so thorough and persistent because China existed.

Successfully invading China (as opposed to staging temporary incusions, naturally!) is not exactly easy. Quite the opposite. Naturally, it's attractive, but it's the kind of "very high effort for a very big prize" kind of deal, which is only for the big boys to contest. So that's why the heirs of Genghis Khan -- most successful conqueror ever -- were the ones to pull it off.

Anyway, with China just being there, and generally beating back all attempts at over-running it, the steppe peoples could only "drain" in two other directions. Whenever that great, grassy... uh... couldron... boiled over, the critical mass of horse-riders would surge into the Eastern edge of Europe, or into the Northern edge of Persia. And they did both of those things, with alarming frequency.



If Europe becomes a "Western China", then this "drain" is indeed plugged. My point is: the shattering of China means that the drain on the other end isn't plugged anymore. But much of the wealth of China's civilisation (and the value of its land) will still remain. so my thinking is that the horse-riders who are now barred from surging into Europe won't just go into Persia. They'll go into the chaos that is Northern China. That's why the "revolving door of warlords" that you have imagined there is so plausible. Every time they can even start thinking about stabilising the region, a new wave of horse-riding lunatics crashes the party.

So, on average, I'd expect the number of steppe invasions of Persia to remain roughly equal to OTL. Those of Europe would decrease, and those of China would increase. That's how I view the dynamics at play here, at least.



A potential way to avert this is something I have once suggested for a scenario: have the North of China indeed consolidate again, and thus able to keep the steppe invaders out. Of course, this would then force Southern China to also consolidate, to avoid being conquered by the North. Outcome: two "Chinas", culturally distinct from each other. One "half Mongol", the other ultimately "half Vietnamese". But to be honest, I think that "bi-polar" set-up would rob your scenario of that charming facet; a multi-state political order in Southern China, which evokes the political situation of Western Europe even as ATL Europe evokes OTL China.
 

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