I agree the academic consensus has emerged that Stalin planned to eventually attack Hitler, although I disagree with the July 1941 date proposed by the Icebreaker Hypothesis. David Glantz wrote his
Stumbling Colossus as a rebuttal of it and I find it convincing. From
When Titans Clashed again:
There is no question that Soviet dogma had long spoken of “liberating” capitalist Europe by an offensive that would inspire the workers to revolt against their masters. In all probability, Stalin intended to enter the war at some future date when Germany was so overstretched that a Marxist revolution appeared possible. 54 It is equally true, as described earlier, that the Red Army had a theoretical and organizational bias in favor of offensive action, if only to ensure that future wars were fought on foreign soil rather than that of the Soviet Union. This bias may have made Stalin and his generals overconfident until Zhukov recognized the imminent German threat in May (see below).55 Having said this, there is little convincing evidence that either the Germans or the Soviets thought the latter could initiate such a conflict in 1941. On the contrary, as this chapter has documented, both sides were acutely aware of the weakness and unpreparedness of the Red Army and VVS. If anything, the German success against France and Britain caught Stalin by surprise, forcing him to confront his ideological foe long before he had expected Hitler to defeat the West. Moreover, the Germans had been preparing their invasion since mid-1940, long before there were any indicators of Soviet preparations to attack.
And for citation 54, for greater context:
