AHC: Swap the political trajectories of interwar Spain & Italy

raharris1973

Well-known member
Here's the challenge: Swap the political trajectories of interwar Spain & Italy

For Spain, keep the right-wing, military and monarchically backed regime of Primo de Rivera (in power 1923-1930 in OTL), going strong through the use of a designated successor (de Rivera died of natural causes in 1930) through the 1930s, without losing support of the military and monarch, losing power, without Spain being declared a Republic, growth of the left, election of a Popular Front, a Civil War with international intervention, and then Franco's right-wing Nationalist dictatorship.

For Italy, have the Fascist Mussolini regime fall circa 1929-1932 [sorry, but it has to exist as a 'thing' for awhile, so can't use everybody's favorite, the Matteoti affair, to bring it down! così dispiaciuto!] It loses support of the King and monarchy and multi-party parliamentarism is restored. Bonus points if the King abdicates under a cloud and the Savoys go into exile and a republic is declared. Even more bonus points if the Left in Italy gains popular momentum and becomes a major electoral contender, and beyond that, elects a Popular Front government, that gets couped, sparking a Civil War, launched by right-wing Italian Nationalists.

Now I know that southern European countries are not interchangeable Lego bricks, but with my limited fidelity knowledge of their politics of the time, I can imagine.

[Tangent: Heck, is there a way we could make Germany go on Spanish timing, with Weimar falling to reactionary dictatorship in the early 20s, but that dictator happening to lose their shine and grip on power and a return to electoral democracy with the start of the Great Depression?]

Between changing Spain or changing Italy, I figure changing Italy is the harder of the two, but maybe that's because I have a stronger stereotype about Fascist Italy or less knowledge about Spain. For bringing down Mussolini in a comparable way to Primo de Rivera, in Primo's case, the things that seemed to lose him support were:
a) Some initial financing of his projects with higher tax rates on the rich, but he backed off from that fairly soon (but by backing off he showed some weakness perhaps?)
b) Subsequent financing of projects by borrowing and loose monetary policy, causing inflation
c) Irritation in the Army with his personal political interference with promotions and appointments

I don't know if similar things could get Mussolini in any trouble or if he could master any and all these things without meaningful pushback.

Other things that in other cases seem to have caused pushback and/or downfall of 'Fascist' or Fascist-like definitively non-communist third way Populists like Vargas and Peron have been, losing support of key, coopted reactionary blocs:

I believe Peron lost the support needed to stay in power and became vulnerable to coup when he seemed to bet too much on the support of urban workers and poor, the 'descamisados' and unions, and lost support of the military, wealthy, middle-class, and church. Maybe Mussolini could have fallen down by the end of the twenties if he left himself get caught up into an echo chamber with more 'left' Fascist advisors of a more capitalist and anti-clerical bent, and does not shore up peasant and female support with his Latern Accord with the Papacy, and then the Great Depression causes the business class to lose confidence in him, and the military officer class are all related to them so it carries over? Just one idea.

Any thoughts on this?
 

49ersfootball

Well-known member
Here's the challenge: Swap the political trajectories of interwar Spain & Italy

For Spain, keep the right-wing, military and monarchically backed regime of Primo de Rivera (in power 1923-1930 in OTL), going strong through the use of a designated successor (de Rivera died of natural causes in 1930) through the 1930s, without losing support of the military and monarch, losing power, without Spain being declared a Republic, growth of the left, election of a Popular Front, a Civil War with international intervention, and then Franco's right-wing Nationalist dictatorship.

For Italy, have the Fascist Mussolini regime fall circa 1929-1932 [sorry, but it has to exist as a 'thing' for awhile, so can't use everybody's favorite, the Matteoti affair, to bring it down! così dispiaciuto!] It loses support of the King and monarchy and multi-party parliamentarism is restored. Bonus points if the King abdicates under a cloud and the Savoys go into exile and a republic is declared. Even more bonus points if the Left in Italy gains popular momentum and becomes a major electoral contender, and beyond that, elects a Popular Front government, that gets couped, sparking a Civil War, launched by right-wing Italian Nationalists.

Now I know that southern European countries are not interchangeable Lego bricks, but with my limited fidelity knowledge of their politics of the time, I can imagine.

[Tangent: Heck, is there a way we could make Germany go on Spanish timing, with Weimar falling to reactionary dictatorship in the early 20s, but that dictator happening to lose their shine and grip on power and a return to electoral democracy with the start of the Great Depression?]

Between changing Spain or changing Italy, I figure changing Italy is the harder of the two, but maybe that's because I have a stronger stereotype about Fascist Italy or less knowledge about Spain. For bringing down Mussolini in a comparable way to Primo de Rivera, in Primo's case, the things that seemed to lose him support were:
a) Some initial financing of his projects with higher tax rates on the rich, but he backed off from that fairly soon (but by backing off he showed some weakness perhaps?)
b) Subsequent financing of projects by borrowing and loose monetary policy, causing inflation
c) Irritation in the Army with his personal political interference with promotions and appointments

I don't know if similar things could get Mussolini in any trouble or if he could master any and all these things without meaningful pushback.

Other things that in other cases seem to have caused pushback and/or downfall of 'Fascist' or Fascist-like definitively non-communist third way Populists like Vargas and Peron have been, losing support of key, coopted reactionary blocs:

I believe Peron lost the support needed to stay in power and became vulnerable to coup when he seemed to bet too much on the support of urban workers and poor, the 'descamisados' and unions, and lost support of the military, wealthy, middle-class, and church. Maybe Mussolini could have fallen down by the end of the twenties if he left himself get caught up into an echo chamber with more 'left' Fascist advisors of a more capitalist and anti-clerical bent, and does not shore up peasant and female support with his Latern Accord with the Papacy, and then the Great Depression causes the business class to lose confidence in him, and the military officer class are all related to them so it carries over? Just one idea.

Any thoughts on this?
Sounds juicy. Subscribed!
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top