raharris1973
Well-known member
The challenge is what’s stated in the title.
AHC: industrial action/strikes prevent a world war from starting, or stop it in its tracks
- Thread starter raharris1973
- Start date
Unlikely to happen in 1914, but if war doesn't break out that year and instead things spiral out of control in 1917 once FJ dies and FF acquires the Austro-Hungarian thrones, then I could certainly see the French working-class not wanting to die in an imperialist war so that Serbia could acquire Bosnia.
raharris1973
Well-known member
Why that particular timing for that particular change? Do you see a decided trend to the left in France that would weaken commitment to the eastern alliance at all costs? An end to Poincare's term as Prez? Not even sure it would have been over yet.
I just feel that there would be greater odds of this then (though not guaranteed by any means) because such a war would be more blatantly perceived as being imperialist whereas in 1914 at least the French left could say that they were fighting a war for Serbia's self-defense and continued independence. If Serbia starts a war over Bosnia, well, it's kind of hard for Serbia not to look imperialist considering that AFAIK it had already previously recognized Bosnia as belonging to A-H in 1908-1909.
raharris1973
Well-known member
Oh, so you are not just changing the year and the Austro-Hungarian monarch, you are most importantly changing how the war starts - with a Serb invasion of Bosnia, not a Viennese ultimatum to Serbia.
well then, …sure
well then, …sure
Yes, exactly. Look at this TL, for instance:
Ausgang on the Ausgleich
I also haven't fleshed out the exact timings of events, suffice to say we are talking a gathering crisis from the Summer of 1916 to early 1917. I have slightly changed the death dates of some individuals, mainly because their OTL deaths can be attributed to the stresses of the war, or in my...
www.alternatehistory.com
The French working-class don't rebel there, but Serbia does intervene in Bosnia there in an attempt at an imperialist land grab.
I could also see the French working-class rebelling if Russia will want to fight for Hungarian independence in 1917 even though FF wants to impose universal suffrage on Hungary and in general treat Hungary's minorities better. In such a case, the French working-class would likely view FF as the good guy and would question any Russian attempts to secure Hungary's independence as being an autocratic and imperialist move, considering just how reactionary the Hungarian government that resisted FF actually was. IIRC, less than 10% of the total Hungarian population could vote in 1914. Please correct me if I'm wrong on this.
Generally, in any war where the CPs are the victims rather than the aggressors, the French working-class might very well resist any French moves towards war. Or at least the odds of this will likely be much higher than they were in real life.
@raharris1973 How do you think that the Franco-Russians are going to view an unofficial assembly in Bosnia in the TL in the post right above?
Seems like recognizing such an assembly could have very dangerous precedents, no? It could mean that an unofficial assembly in any country could be used as an excuse by this country's neighbors to militarily intervene in this country, no? Would Russia like it if Polish nationalists set up an unofficial assembly declared independence and invited Germany and Austria-Hungary to protect the newly independent Poland from a Russian reconquest, for instance? Or for Romania, with Austro-Hungaro-German support, to set up an unofficial assembly in Bessarabia that would subsequently declare Bessarabia's independence from Russia and Bessarabia's union with Romania? Or for the Turks and Kurds in Kars and Ardahan Oblasts to set up an unofficial assembly that would declare their region's reunion with the Ottoman Empire?
Seems like recognizing such an assembly could have very dangerous precedents, no? It could mean that an unofficial assembly in any country could be used as an excuse by this country's neighbors to militarily intervene in this country, no? Would Russia like it if Polish nationalists set up an unofficial assembly declared independence and invited Germany and Austria-Hungary to protect the newly independent Poland from a Russian reconquest, for instance? Or for Romania, with Austro-Hungaro-German support, to set up an unofficial assembly in Bessarabia that would subsequently declare Bessarabia's independence from Russia and Bessarabia's union with Romania? Or for the Turks and Kurds in Kars and Ardahan Oblasts to set up an unofficial assembly that would declare their region's reunion with the Ottoman Empire?
Buba
A total creep
AFAIK contemporaries feared such an event. E.g. the French had a long list of socialists and labour union leaders to be arrested in case of war.
I suppose a concerted effort by the SPD in Germany and the left in France could torpedo the war. But I'd imagine civil wars in those countries instead.
I suppose a concerted effort by the SPD in Germany and the left in France could torpedo the war. But I'd imagine civil wars in those countries instead.
raharris1973
Well-known member
Full-out civil wars, Spanish Civil War, Russian Civil War style, in both France and Germany, at the *same time* they are fighting at least a half-assed WWI with each other?
Or would it be more something like major domestic repression of workers and the left, combined with pretty much being able to do a normal WWI.
Or being able to do a normal WWI, but with both sides being hassled by leftist insurgencies manifested by rolling strikes, desertions, and occasional armed mutinies?