Additional realistic members of the "nuclear club"?

[WolfBear]

Which additional countries could have realistically become members of the "nuclear club"--as in, the group of countries that currently have nuclear weapons? Ideally, the later the PoD for this, the better.

Personally, I can think of:

-Germany, Japan, and Italy if they never lose WWII or, alternatively, if WWII never actually occurs in the first place.
-Libya if it avoids giving up its nuclear program in 2003 and manages to subsequently avoid regime change for a long enough time period (which is by no means guaranteed).
-Iraq if it avoids the Gulf War.
-Iran might be possible in the future if Israel and/or the West will piss it off strongly enough.
-Argentina had it remained a military dictatorship for a longer time period. But after the return of democracy, it would likely give up its nukes just like South Africa did.

Anyway, which additional examples of this can you think of? Maybe North Vietnam if it avoids unifying with South Vietnam and thus subsequently goes rogue a la North Korea, but even then, it's probably far-fetched. So, who else?

 

[raharris1973]

-Libya if it avoids giving up its nuclear program in 2003 and manages to subsequently avoid regime change for a long enough time period (which is by no means guaranteed).

I wonder if they were ever really that close. They are a low population country with a low scientific. technical base. Their main asset is being able to throw spare cash at the problem. I feel like if Iran hasn't done it in all this time, I'm skeptical if Libya could have pulled everything together.

 

[bintananth]

Bulgaria, easily. A Bulgarian Nuclear Engineer who helped clean up Chernobyl was working in the US during 2001-2 as an HVAC engineer.

 

[WolfBear]

I wonder if they were ever really that close. They are a low population country with a low scientific. technical base. Their main asset is being able to throw spare cash at the problem. I feel like if Iran hasn't done it in all this time, I'm skeptical if Libya could have pulled everything together.

Iran is capable of doing this but prefers to remain at a nuclear threshold capacity, to my knowledge. Allows for greater Iranian options that way.

Libya was not capable of doing this with its own talents but did get a lot of help from the A. Q. Khan Network:

Obituary: A.Q. Khan was the world’s biggest nuclear proliferator

The father of Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons programme died on October 10th, aged 85

www.economist.com

 

[WolfBear]

Bulgaria, easily. A Bulgarian Nuclear Engineer who helped clean up Chernobyl was working in the US during 2001-2 as an HVAC engineer.

What's his name?

BTW, here is a wikibox of nuclear arsenals by country in a TL where there is no World War I at all:

For Want of A Sandwich - A Franz Ferdinand Lives Wikibox TL

A complete recension of all entries in the TL

www.alternatehistory.com

What do you think, @raharris1973?

 

[bintananth]

What's his name?

HER name was Katerinka.

 

[WolfBear]

HER name was Katerinka.

Katernika sounds like a diminutive nickname for Katerina, or Katherine in English.

 

[bintananth]

Katernika sounds like a diminutive nickname for Katerina, or Katherine in English.

I have sisters who prefer to be called Phil, George, Henry, and Arthur. If she says she's Katerinka ... she's Katerinka and I ain't going to argue.

 

[raharris1973]

What's his name?

BTW, here is a wikibox of nuclear arsenals by country in a TL where there is no World War I at all:

For Want of A Sandwich - A Franz Ferdinand Lives Wikibox TL

A complete recension of all entries in the TL

www.alternatehistory.com

What do you think, @raharris1973?

What happened to France in this timeline?

 

[WolfBear]

What happened to France in this timeline?

It was a republic and then apparently became a monarchy in or around 2022. It also permanently kept northern Algeria.

 

[Buba]

Ukraine and Belarus - they keep ex-Soviet nukes.
Libya? Surely you jest ... Iraq is not far from ROLF LOLNOPE territory either.

 

[raharris1973]

It was a republic and then apparently became a monarchy in or around 2022. It also permanently kept northern Algeria.

It is not a nuclear power here, which is very strange

 

[WolfBear]

It is not a nuclear power here, which is very strange

Yeah, I wondered about that myself as well and unfortunately don't know the answer to this.

 

[raharris1973]

Yeah, I wondered about that myself as well and unfortunately don't know the answer to this.

It made me assume the country was permanently conquered or destroyed

 

[WolfBear]

It made me assume the country was permanently conquered or destroyed

No; France is here on this Wikibox TL, see? :

For Want of A Sandwich - A Franz Ferdinand Lives Wikibox TL

A complete recension of all entries in the TL

www.alternatehistory.com

There's an index for this Wikibox TL, BTW.

 

[bintananth]

No; France is here on this Wikibox TL, see? :

For Want of A Sandwich - A Franz Ferdinand Lives Wikibox TL

A complete recension of all entries in the TL

www.alternatehistory.com

There's an index for this Wikibox TL, BTW.

Wierdly enough the only parts of the US that are north of a northern Paris suburb are located in Alaska.

Northern France is basically Southern Canada with much better weather.

 

[WolfBear]

Wierdly enough the only parts of the US that are north of a northern Paris suburb are located in Alaska.

Northern France is basically Southern Canada with much better weather.

For some reason, the weather in North America rapidly gets cold relative to its altitude.

 

[bintananth]

For some reason, the weather in North America rapidly gets cold relative to its altitude.

My home's HVAC system is designed to handle -40°F/C because frostbite sucks.

That's when the Celsius and Farenheit scales measure the same number when it's so miserably cold outside that bullshit like white fuming nitric acid - which has been used in rocket motors - is only a few degrees away from turning into a solid block of "this ain't melting anytime which could be called 'soon'".

 

[Cherico]

Taiwan they have the skill money and motivation

 

[ATP]

Which additional countries could have realistically become members of the "nuclear club"--as in, the group of countries that currently have nuclear weapons? Ideally, the later the PoD for this, the better.

Personally, I can think of:

-Germany, Japan, and Italy if they never lose WWII or, alternatively, if WWII never actually occurs in the first place.
-Libya if it avoids giving up its nuclear program in 2003 and manages to subsequently avoid regime change for a long enough time period (which is by no means guaranteed).
-Iraq if it avoids the Gulf War.
-Iran might be possible in the future if Israel and/or the West will piss it off strongly enough.
-Argentina had it remained a military dictatorship for a longer time period. But after the return of democracy, it would likely give up its nukes just like South Africa did.

Anyway, which additional examples of this can you think of? Maybe North Vietnam if it avoids unifying with South Vietnam and thus subsequently goes rogue a la North Korea, but even then, it's probably far-fetched. So, who else?

1.If WW2 never happened - Germany,Italy,Japan,Poland.
2.If Jelcyn was smart - he would let Belarus and Uraine keep nuclear weapons in exchange for never joining NATO.The same with Poland,Hungary and Czech republic.
If that happened,germans would probably get nukes,too - from USA.