A Russian invasion of Ukraine: Just how far would Russia go and what would Russia's war aims be?

W

WolfBear

Well-known member
History Learner

History Learner

Well-known member
WolfBear said:
Here are some questions about attitudes towards secession and federalization from Novorossiya (excluding Crimea, which was already annexed by Russia back then) from early 2014:

News - The views and opinions of South-Eastern regions residents of Ukraine: April 2014

kiis.com.ua kiis.com.ua

Novorossiya (southern and eastern Ukraine) is, of course, the most pro-Russian part of Ukraine as evidenced by its voting patterns.
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I would be very curious to see what the response was now, after nearly eight years and given the heavy fighting started after April of 2014.
 
History Learner

History Learner

Well-known member
WolfBear said:
Support for integration with Russia would be much lower, most likely:

Press releases and reports - Attitude of the population of Ukraine to Russia and the population of Russia to Ukraine, February 2021

kiis.com.ua kiis.com.ua
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So not direct annexation, but bringing them in as part of the Customs Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Also interesting is this, given they didn't interview anyone outside of Ukrainian control:

The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia significantly depends on the region: in the West 31% have a positive attitude towards Russia, in the Center - 35%, in the South - 49%, in the East - 59%. The majority of those who have a negative attitude towards Russia are concentrated in the Western region (52%), the least in the Eastern region (24%) (see Table 2).​
 
W

WolfBear

Well-known member
History Learner said:
So not direct annexation, but bringing them in as part of the Customs Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Also interesting is this, given they didn't interview anyone outside of Ukrainian control:

The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia significantly depends on the region: in the West 31% have a positive attitude towards Russia, in the Center - 35%, in the South - 49%, in the East - 59%. The majority of those who have a negative attitude towards Russia are concentrated in the Western region (52%), the least in the Eastern region (24%) (see Table 2).​
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Eurasian Union membership has also become much less popular in Ukraine by now. And Crimea and the Donbass have already exercised their right of national self-determination by leaving Ukraine, so I'm not sure why their opinions should actually count here?

www.iri.org

IRI Ukraine Poll Shows Support for EU/NATO Membership, Concerns over Economy and Vaccines for COVID-19

Kyiv, Ukraine – The latest public opinion survey conducted by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR)
www.iri.org www.iri.org

When asked which international economic union they would join if Ukraine could only join one, 58% of Ukrainians chose the EU. Only 21% support joining a Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. If a referendum were held on joining NATO, 54% would vote to join the military alliance.
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Again, excluding Crimea and the Donbass, but they have already left Ukraine for all meaningful intents and purposes.
 
W

WolfBear

Well-known member
I think that Russia could have an easier time selling the idea of neutrality to Ukrainians under its occupation than it would selling the idea of Eurasian Economic Union membership. Based on the poll above, something like 20% (give or take a few %) of Ukrainians appear to support a neutralist course. This would mean that 40% of Ukrainians are either pro-Eurasia or pro-neutrality, a figure that could presumably rise to 50-ish % if western Ukraine is excluded.
 
W

WolfBear

Well-known member
You can also take a look at the polling on page 20 here:


Europe beats Eurasia 3:1, but there are some neutralists and a lot of people who are uncertain. So, Yeah, neutrality would likely be much more appealing than Eurasian Economic Union membership.
 
TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
Zachowon said:
No, so a nation can remain governing itself
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Like Latin America in the Cold War ? Because it's very easy for you to talk about "self-governance" when we have foreign military in our borders or until we do as Washington says. The truth is the United States acts like the informal heir of the British Empire and a blend of the HRE. Everything is "swell" until you stop being submissive to DC diktats.

Not to mention your past governments (such as JFK, Nixon, Johnson and recently Bush-Obama) used the same reasoning and excuse to cause misery in any angle of the world that didn't want to follow your line.

  1. Costa Rica
  2. Cuba
  3. Egypt
  4. Guatemala
  5. Nicaragua
  6. Iran
  7. Cambodia
  8. Both South and North Vietnam
  9. Laos
  10. Indonesia
  11. Bolivia
  12. Colombia
  13. Iraq (multiple times at least!)
  14. Domincan Republic, notably in 1961
  15. Syria (1949 and 2011-now)
  16. Brazil (though to a much lesser degree)
  17. Afghanistan
And these are just a few of.

The reality is your country's governments and intelligence service are out for their own interest and you have helped the world in a positive way only twice, the two world wars against the Germans.

The facade of self-governance is just an excuse. It's self governance ONLY when it's comfortable for your elites interests.
 
Zachowon

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
TheRejectionist said:
Like Latin America in the Cold War ? Because it's very easy for you to talk about "self-governance" when we have foreign military in our borders or until we do as Washington says. The truth is the United States acts like the informal heir of the British Empire and a blend of the HRE. Everything is "swell" until you stop being submissive to DC diktats.

Not to mention your past governments (such as JFK, Nixon, Johnson and recently Bush-Obama) used the same reasoning and excuse to cause misery in any angle of the world that didn't want to follow your line.

  1. Costa Rica
  2. Cuba
  3. Egypt
  4. Guatemala
  5. Nicaragua
  6. Iran
  7. Cambodia
  8. Both South and North Vietnam
  9. Laos
  10. Indonesia
  11. Bolivia
  12. Colombia
  13. Iraq (multiple times at least!)
  14. Domincan Republic, notably in 1961
  15. Syria (1949 and 2011-now)
  16. Brazil (though to a much lesser degree)
  17. Afghanistan
And these are just a few of.

The reality is your country's governments and intelligence service are out for their own interest and you have helped the world in a positive way only twice, the two world wars against the Germans.

The facade of self-governance is just an excuse. It's self governance ONLY when it's comfortable for your elites interests.
Click to expand...
None of those countries are European.
The US had let majority of those self govern, and they brought themselves down.....
A few that we didn't. We always shit shows.

What Russia is doing is the equivalent of Italy going, "All of the old Roman lands are Italian" and then trying to retake it.
Whybis it diffrent when kr invovles Russia?
 
TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
Zachowon said:
None of those countries are European.
The US had let majority of those self govern, and they brought themselves down.....
A few that we didn't. We always shit shows.
Click to expand...

Italy post-war. Albania as well. Greece. Assassination of ENI's CEO. And God's know what is still buried in the archives of the CIA and FBI. And the brought themselves, what a perfect excuse! Sounds like a rapist saying it's a woman's fault.

GIVE ME A BREAK.

Russia is doing is the equivalent of Italy going, "All of the old Roman lands are Italian" and then trying to retake it.
Whybis it diffrent when kr invovles Russia?
Click to expand...

These wouldn't have happened with all your habits of starting coups and revolutions. Have you ever considered what would have happened if the roles were reversed ?

What if the Mexicans and/or Canadians joined the Russian faction?
 
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