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United States 2024: United States Senate Dicussion Thread

2024 US Senate seats to Watch!

49ersfootball

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@Stargazer @Cherico @Airedale260 @Carrot of Truth @Aaron Fox @The Unicorn @stevep @TheRomanSlayer @Zyobot @f1onagher @Mimas @The Whispering Monk @Typhonis @gral @Husky_Khan @Zachowon @DarthOne @typed-machinery @History Learner @Ibanez @TerrificWarden @Morphic Tide

*PA: I'm hearing about McCormick potentially planning another Senate campaign in the Keystone State. Will United States Senator Robert P. Casey, Jr., (D-PA) seek reelection to 4th term in 2024 ?

*OH: GOPers will be gunning to knock off three-term incumbent United States Senator
Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who recently announced his reelection campaign. With the Buckeye State now permanently Red for the foreseeable future, will Brown finally go down ?

*WV: The Retirement Watch is on for United States Senator
Joe Manchin (D-WV) due to folks in the Mountaineer State getting sick & tired of him, his approval ratings plunging & the speculation about WV Governor Jim Justice (R) considering running for the United States Senate in 2024.

*MT: All eyes in the Treasure State to see if United States Senator
John Tester (D-MT) will seek reelection because GOPers are determined to take him down.

*MI (OPEN): Wait & See approach on whom the respective Dem & GOP nominees will be in the Wolverine State.

*NV: NV GOPers will be itching to take down United States Senator
Jacky Rosen (D-NV) due to their recent success in flipping the Governorship, Lieutenant Governorship & State Controller offices in 2022.

*AZ: Potential 3-way train-wreck between United States Senator
Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) vs US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) vs whoever the GOP nominee will be.
 

Aaron Fox

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*MT: All eyes in the Treasure State to see if United States Senator John Tester (D-MT) will seek reelection because GOPers are determined to take him down.
Tester is a very beloved figure in Montana, and the only reason that he didn't stay as Governor is because of our fucking stupid governor term limit law.

Given the rabid state of the GOP in general, it heavily depends on the guy they send to challenge him, and the state is a bit wearier of GOP-aligned politicians given the fact that one of them assaulted the press (which is a no-no in-state).
 

49ersfootball

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Tester is a very beloved figure in Montana, and the only reason that he didn't stay as Governor is because of our fucking stupid governor term limit law.

Given the rabid state of the GOP in general, it heavily depends on the guy they send to challenge him, and the state is a bit wearier of GOP-aligned politicians given the fact that one of them assaulted the press (which is a no-no in-state).
Tester was NEVER Governor of MT buddy!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_Montana
 

Bear Ribs

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When the elections aren't sufficiently fortified, and a popular non-establishment candidate gets in, term limits let the establishment just delay and stonewall for a few years until said candidate can't run again.

This is basically what happened when California elected Arnold Schwarzaneggar. He had a very strong popular mandate and tried to get a number of reforms done but every move he made was met with unrelenting sandbagging until his term limits ran out and they could get another boring establishment candidate into position.
 

ShadowArxxy

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Whoops. Conflated with someone else... but the point of the stupid term limit law still stands.
Google-fu says the longest-serving governor in Montana history was Joseph Toole, who served eleven years in office from 1889 to 1993 and then 1901 to 1908. In any case, only one other governor in Montana history was elected three times even before the term limit law was enacted (and he resigned shortly into his third term anyway), so this seems like a very theoretical criticism.
 

Sergeant Foley

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When the elections aren't sufficiently fortified, and a popular non-establishment candidate gets in, term limits let the establishment just delay and stonewall for a few years until said candidate can't run again.

This is basically what happened when California elected Arnold Schwarzaneggar. He had a very strong popular mandate and tried to get a number of reforms done but every move he made was met with unrelenting sandbagging until his term limits ran out and they could get another boring establishment candidate into position.
Schwarzenegger was prevented from seeking second full term in 2010 due to that STUPID term limits garbage.
 

Sergeant Foley

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Google-fu says the longest-serving governor in Montana history was Joseph Toole, who served eleven years in office from 1889 to 1993 and then 1901 to 1908. In any case, only one other governor in Montana history was elected three times even before the term limit law was enacted (and he resigned shortly into his third term anyway), so this seems like a very theoretical criticism.
Which Top 12 US Senate elections are you watching closely in 2024?
 

Vyor

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When the elections aren't sufficiently fortified, and a popular non-establishment candidate gets in, term limits let the establishment just delay and stonewall for a few years until said candidate can't run again.

This is basically what happened when California elected Arnold Schwarzaneggar. He had a very strong popular mandate and tried to get a number of reforms done but every move he made was met with unrelenting sandbagging until his term limits ran out and they could get another boring establishment candidate into position.
On the other hand, it prevents establishment bullshit in the long term.
 

strunkenwhite

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Which Top 12 US Senate elections are you watching closely in 2024?
Top 12, eh? Hmm...
AZ is the most obvious flashpoint as long as Sinema is running as independent
WV, MT, OH all red to deep red states with Democratic incumbents
NV is a swing state with small senatorial margins
TX just because
Gosh, I'm only halfway? WI PA IN FL VA MN

That's for the general election, mind you. There are other states where the primaries will be interesting; or rather, I expect there will be, but I don't have a firm grip on which ones. I suppose California would be pretty high on the list, actually.

Actually, shit. California does the jungle primaries. So the general might be a D vs. D showdown against Feinstein if she doesn't retire first.
 
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Blasterbot

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Actually, shit. California does the jungle primaries. So the general might be a D vs. D showdown against Feinstein if she doesn't retire first.
my understanding is that she likely will. there is a fair kerfuffle about who will replace her. a representative came out and said she was gonna run for it before fienstien said she wouldn't so knives may come out for the primary. it promises to be entertaining if nothing else.
 
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