While this might be true, party still does matter. A Republican in the seat can lead to Republicans controlling the Senate and holding the various Committees and the like. Plus Republican Senate with a Republican President would equal more Republican judges more easily, and the Deep Staters have not sought to stop Republican judges from getting appointed and that's made a huge difference.
This is literally the opposite of true.
Best guesses for November 5th:
Yes. Split decision considering AZ Governor Katie Hobbs (D) gunning to flip both chambers of the AZ State Legislature.
You're referring to WV & MT as the only pick-ups for the GOP ? I think OH flips to Moreno.
WV and MT seem like the most likely pickups, but it's not impossible that Tester holds on to MT while Moreno wins OH. What I said above isn't wedded to any particular opinions about specific races. For example, winning WV, MT, and OH while losing an upset flip in TX or FL would count as +2 R.
FL: Scott wins somewhere between 6-12 percentage points.
To be clear, I think Dems winning Florida in any sense is very unlikely. As for Ted Cruz, I do think he's favored to win but I also think it'll be fairly close. But I'm not in Texas and neither is it a special focus for me. Why do you disagree with that?
Cruz has basically no chance of getting the nomination. It will be one of the guys Trump brought into the party and is considered part of his movement. DeSantis, Vance or Vivek are the only three with any chance of winning the primary post-Trump. Right now it would be a competition between DeSantis and Vivek, likely DeSantis would take it, but in four years it could very well be Vance.