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United States 2022 Midterms: United States Senate Dicussion Thread

Captain X

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Not just to cheat, but legitly to give people more time to do it in person, or do it via mail.

The idea of having to physically go vote at a polling place, and only on election day, as the only acceptable method of voting is the GOP shooting itself in the foot.

I can see an argument about mail-in being iffy in some places, but early voting, in case people are going to be too busy on election day itself, is absolutely a legit methodology.

The GOP can adapt and increase it's voter turn out, or it can continue to act like the only acceptable way to vote is in-person, on election day, regardless of the practical realities of early and mail-in voting.
I'm okay with early voting, but mail-in voting should be banned, and IDs should be needed to vote.
 

Sergeant Foley

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Luckily the media does not decide the winners of elections, state authorities do.

And said state authorities are not willing to certifiy the election because of all the fuckery that was found to have gone on.

Right now NO ONE has won the election, so neither Hobbs or Lake can truly claim victory right now.
Yet Democrats kept the Arizona Secretary of State's office.
 

Bacle

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I'm okay with early voting, but mail-in voting should be banned, and IDs should be needed to vote.
Needing ID's is fine, but removing mail-in isn't worth it; sometimes people live too far out to reasonably make it to a polling place, some people are like our troops over seas who have to mail in ballots to home area, and American's working abroad also need ways to make their voice heard.

Mail-in can be done securely and safely, it just requires actual oversight and accountability.

Here in CO we've had mail-in/drop-off ballots for years, and they come with the ability to track your vote via both barcode and tracking numbers to make sure your vote actually went in and was counted. The state even sends you an email when they get your ballot, to show they have it, and to make sure people know their votes are being counted.
 

Airedale260

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I'm okay with early voting, but mail-in voting should be banned, and IDs should be needed to vote.
Depends on how early. A couple of weeks before is fine; my parents used it this year because they were out of town the week of the election. I used it the week before because I figured it would be one less thing to have to worry about. ID I’m fine with as well, though that means also reforming state level processes so people can get free non-driver IDs; that’s much less of a challenge than people make it seem sometimes, but adding that stipulation would head off legal challenges (even if certain people will still scream bloody murder…)

As for mail-in voting, as said above, there are people who genuinely need it (for example, military personnel deployed overseas); however, I do agree that the whole “Send them out even if people don’t actually request them” or “no questions asked” for mail ballots needs to be axed. It may be legal by the letter of the law, but it goes against the spirit. Especially since your right to vote also means you have a responsibility to know who and what you’re voting for beyond just party or whatever.
 

History Learner

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So, it was someone who most likely knew exactly what the situation was but intentionally recorded an out of context, deceptive video for the sake of misrepresenting election integrity and riling up the republican base? You'd think with all the "obvious and indisputable" evidence floating around, people mightn't need to manufacture it.
The fraud stuff is honestly just a very, very poor cope. Same, however, goes for the more Ethno-Nationalist factions who chalk it up to changing demographics. In reality the GOP just sucks because it's controlled opposition; the inability to accept this fact is what continues to hold back so many in this thread politically.
 

ShadowArxxy

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If the House Republicans actually do that, I will applaud them. However, I'm not convinced they actually will given that pork-stuffed omnibus bills are a staple tactic for both mainstream political parties. Even precious Bernie Sanders voted to keep the pork flowing despite all of his whining about it; ironically, the much-hated Hillary Clinton was one of the only people in Congress who actually kept her word and voted to eliminate pork.
 

DarthOne

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Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data



For many Republicans, the final midterm election results were surprising— especially in the states of Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Based on polling, it looked likely that Kari Lake, Adam Laxalt, and Mehmet Oz would win their contests. I believe that there are only three likely explanations for the unexpected results: late campaign surges, polling error, or aggressive ballot-harvesting.

A late surge?

Some Republicans are falling for an illogical narrative put forth by Democrats and the mainstream media. It goes like this: Although Republican candidates were higher in the polls, at the last minute people voted for Democrats because:

  • they feared the end of democracy
  • they hated Donald Trump
  • they were angered by the Dobbs abortion decision
  • they saw more anti-Republican campaign ads, due to financing differences
  • they were turned off by fighting during the primaries
  • they weren’t impressed by the poor quality GOP candidates
Certainly, these were real and very potent factors for many if not all Democrats, and for some independents. However, they were all “baked into the cake” long before the election and long before pre-election voter polls were administered. They were not last-minute issues.

I can think of a couple significant last-minute campaign developments, but they worked against the Democrats— not for them. Many pundits thought John Fetterman’s late October debate performance would put him into a political death spiral. Indeed, he was polling lower than Oz, just before the election. However, he ended up winning by over 4 points— somehow.

And Katie Hobbs was roundly criticized for her deer-in-the-headlights interviews near the end of the campaign. Just before the election, Hobbs was polling substantially below Lake, yet she won. Lake’s pre-election dominance is evident from the polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight:

Figure 1: Lake-Hobbs polling trends Oct 1 to Nov 8



When we look at the trend shown in Figure 1, and at the ending polling disparity (2.4%), it is hard to see how Hobbs managed to win.

Polling error?

Of course, polls could have been wrong all along. However, that seems unlikely, given the consistency of the results in a number of polls, administered by many different polling organizations. For the Lake-Hobbs contest, the results displayed by FiveThirtyEight came from 13 different polling organizations, as shown in Figure 2. Only one (Marist) had Hobbs winning:

Figure 2: Lake-Hobbs polling organizations and results




Did 12 out of 13 companies make the same error, and in the same direction?

We see the same pattern with the senatorial contests. Figure 3 displays the final polling averages, as produced by RealClearPolitics, for seven key races. In each case the GOP candidate was leading just before the election, even though these races were in different states and conducted by different pollsters, and for different candidates. This pattern does not suggest polling error. The actual election results (courtesy of Reuters) are also shown.

Three of the seven contests were won by Republicans, but look deeper. In every case, the Democrat candidate’s election results were sharply higher than the final polling percentage. For the most part, that was not the case for Republicans, as we can see in the right-side columns in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Senatorial polling versus results



Figure 4, below, presents the same information in graphic form. Keep your eye on the “zero” line. It shows the expected results for both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats are entirely above the “expected” line, signifying that they beat the predictions in every case. On the other hand, Republicans are much lower, and mostly below the expected line.

Figure 4: Senatorial polling results, shown graphically



Before we address ballot-harvesting, let’s summarize: Perhaps I missed it, but it seems there was no last minute erosion of support for GOP candidates. And polling error is unlikely, given that the GOP lead was shown by many different pollsters, in different states, and for different candidates. Yet, the Democrat candidates consistently beat expectations by quite a lot. Why was that?

Ballot-harvesting

It is just a theory, but I believe that aggressive ballot-harvesting is the most likely explanation for the disparity between pollster predictions and actual results in the 2022 midterm elections. In the movie, 2,000 Mules, True the Vote (TTV), the organization run by Catharine Engelbrecht and Gregg Phillips, described the prevalence of ballot-harvesting in the 2020 election. Although its estimates are only rough approximations (based on cell phone analysis), TTV believes there were up to 200,000 and 275,000 harvested ballots in Arizona and Pennsylvania, respectively. Nevada was not included in the TTV analysis, but since the end of 2020, Nevada has taken all restrictions off of harvesting. It is now legal to harvest ballots in Nevada, and it can be done anonymously in any quantity with ballots from unregistered homeless people, drug addicts— anyone. [Editor's note: See also phantom voting, previously published at American Thinker by contributor Jay Valentine, here and here.]

When it comes to the legality of ballot-harvesting, there is confusion. As noted, it is now completely legal in the state of Nevada. In most other swing states, including Pennsylvania and Arizona, it is (technically) allowed only within tight limitations (e.g., for family members). That said, large-scale harvesting operations have been performed in many states, and I believe they often lead to serious election law violations. There are three reasons for this:

  1. In some states, administrators ignore the practice, and may even see it as “empowering” for voters in “marginalized communities.”
  2. It is very easy to cheat when ballots are returned via mail or drop boxes without a hard identification requirement.
  3. Harvesters are usually paid “per piece,” and have incentives to find or steal as many ballots as possible.
It is ironic. Democrats are offended by the term “ballot-harvesting” because they see it as a demeaning pejorative. I also am offended by the term, but for a very different reason. I think it is too nice a term for the serious, organized criminal activity that is often associated with ballot-harvesting operations.

Harvesting advocates (mostly Democrats) claim the activity is simply a way to help disadvantaged voters deliver their ballots to a mail box or to a ballot drop box— sort of like a courier service. Do you buy that? Common sense and the polling results tell us that harvesting is much more insidious.

Some Republicans say that the GOP needs to start large-scale harvesting operations, to compete with Democrats. I hope they do not do it because it is a dirty, dishonest practice that should not be tolerated. It is a real “attack on democracy.”

Someday, a whistleblower may step forward to provide hard evidence (if it exists) that can be investigated and prosecuted. Until then, Republicans should consider how very lucky they are. They won a majority in the House of Representatives for, possibly, one reason: Harvesters did not think their services were needed in the deep blue state of New York!

Joe Fried is an Ohio-based CPA who has performed and reviewed hundreds of certified financial audits. He is the author of the new book, Debunked? An auditor reviews the 2020 election— and the lessons learned (Republic Book Publishers, 2022). It provides a comprehensive overview of irregularities that affected the 2020 election.
CROOKS AND LIARS: Maricopa County Moves Election Certification to ONE HOUR Before They Were Subpoenaed to Cough Up Election Records





In a stunning, and impossible, upset Democrat Katie Hobbs allegedly ‘defeated’ extremely popular conservative Kari Lake in the midterm gubernatorial election.

Katie Hobbs did not campaign, did not have a major following, did not hold rallies, and refused to debate.

Hobbs was able to win the election after she somehow won over 50% of the post-election ballots despite Democrats having only a 17% turnout on election day.

It was a miracle win for Hobbs and her fellow Democrats!

Over 25% to 30% of the tabulators were not working on Election Day when Republicans had at least 72% of the turnout.

This is the definition of election interference. It is the definition of election suppression.

If America had a legitimate Department of Justice they would have been in Arizona and the election would already have been disqualified.

They did this in Germany just last week.

The Maricopa County election officials were served with a subpoena to provide election records by 9:30 AM on Monday.

So Maricopa County officials moved their planned 9:30 AM meeting to 8:00 AM on Monday.

They don’t even hide their deceit and fraud. They really don’t care.

Republicans believed they were dealing with honest Americans. Once again, they were fooled.

As long as our side plays by the rules, we will lose every single time.

The enemy knows this.

That is why they are laughing at us all the time.
 

Sergeant Foley

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Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data





CROOKS AND LIARS: Maricopa County Moves Election Certification to ONE HOUR Before They Were Subpoenaed to Cough Up Election Records

Arizona State Attorney General election to be decided hopefully next week.
 
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