Who do you think will win? My understanding is the former president's party got a boost after this impeachment's proceedings.
It's hard to say for certain, but the Liberal Democratic Party (DP) will probably take it home. The People Power Party (PPP) faces a tough fight ahead. They lost seats in the last election and only secured the presidential vote by a small margin. Yoon's impeachment may rally conservative voters to the PPP, but the DP has a clear leader in Lee Jae-myung and the support of their small coalition. While there are other, less likely candidates, Lee remains the frontrunner.
Meanwhile, the PPP has been embroiled in internal conflicts long before Yoon's impeachment. The party has been loosely divided between the pro-Yoon (Old Guard) and the Non-Yoon (New Guard) factions. The fromer party leader was part of the Non-Yoon faction, while former President Yoon was primarily aligned with himself. This divide has only deepened with the impeachment.
Likely presidential candidates for the PPP include Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, former party leader Han Dong-hoon, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo. However, the party remains in a state of disarray.
Though Yoon's impeachment has been decried by many loyal PPP voters has unjust, more casual voters see the martial law as a attempt by Yoon to undermine Korean democracy. This may make them more reluctant to vote for the PPP, especially if the candidate is openly aligned with Yoon or one of his supporters.
Likely PPP candidates:
Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, though part of Yoon's administration, was against the declaration of martial law, if I remember correctly.
Former party leader Han Dong-hoon was also vocally opposed to martial law and supported impeachment—this was the reason he was removed as party leader. He is also young 50 years old and was a anti-corruption candidate.
Hong Joon-pyo is an old-school conservative who supports conglomerates and wants to crack down on unions. He maintains a hawkish stance on defense and advocates for increasing Korea's nuclear deterrent. He also seeks to expand the use of the death penalty. He has been reported to be in the Yoon camp.
Oh Se-hoon was against martial law, though not in favor of impeachment, if I remember correctly. He openly supports South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons program, independent of the United States.
This was the 4 most likely candidates there at least 15 candidates from PPP how has shown interest. I personally would go with Han Dong-hoon as the PPP's presidential candidate—he has been openly anti-corruption and his young. But that's exactly why I don't think he will be chosen. Otherwise Oh Se-hoon will probly be a good canditate.
Likely DP candidates:
Liberal Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Jae-myung, who is currently the front-runner for the party, is expected to step down as party leader to enter the presidential race. While he is not legally required to resign, most people anticipate that he will do so to ensure a fair party primary process. He is alleged embroiled in bribery, corruption, breach of trust, and conflict of interest charges. He has also been fined for refusing to testify in corruption cases. Additionally, there are alleged connections to local Seongnam mafia organizations as well as North Korea. He has more scandals attached to him than usual for a top Korean politician. With all that being siad Lee has high approval ratings.
Former South Gyeongsang Governor Kim Kyoung-soo is best known for his involvement in the 2018 opinion-rigging scandal in South Korea. He was jailed for two years on charges related to online-rigging operations at both the first and second levels.
Gyeonggi Governor Kim Dong-yeon is relatively clean but not well-known or popular, making him an unlikely candidate. His focuse would probly be on the econmy,
The wild card candidates:
Lee Jun-seok is the party leader of the New Reform Party (NRP), a moderate conservative big-tent party that split from the PPP and includes politicians from other parties such as the DP and JP.
At just 40 years old, Lee is known for his staunch anti-feminism and support for South Korean Idaenam. He was removed from PPP leadership after police investigated him for sexual bribery and evidence destruction, though the charges were later dropped. Following his removal, he left the PPP to establish the NRP.
The South Korean liberal newspaper
Hankyoreh has compared Lee to Donald Trump, noting that while their political views differ, both appeal to voters dissatisfied with the established system.
Also worth noting is that the PPP has not done any campaigning so far, while the DP has already started. This is because the PPP had been holding the official position that the impeachment would fail. At the same time thime New Reform Party may split the conservative vote. PPP is pro USA and DP is in border strokes more pro PRC.