1. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    LordsFire addressed your JIT misunderstanding. It's not uncommon for industrial workplaces to have a possible maximum throughput that's substantially higher than normal daily activity; otherwise, UPS wouldn't be able to ship any more packages at Christmastime than in mid-June. (That would go...
  2. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    If Putin calls up 2 million reserves they are more likely to fight against Putin than for him.
  3. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    I don't think JIT means what you seem to think it means. Slack capacity means that the factories aren't running at 100% of their possible output, right? Whereas JIT just means minimizing/eliminating inventory buffer. Can you connect these dots? As for your example, it doesn't say what that...
  4. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    1. Ukraine has had ongoing anti-corruption efforts for quite a while now, but I find it hard to believe that if HIMARS, Patriots, and F-16s had been rushed to the front in 2022 they would have ended up falling off the back of a turnip truck. Can you connect the dots a bit more firmly? 2. A...
  5. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    I think the likeliest explanation is that Russia is aware that Ukraine is in an unusually weak position due to the logjam in American aid and is going the extra mile in trying to take advantage of it while the opportunity lasts. As usual the gains are very costly for them but this is arguably...
  6. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    You couldn't be more wrong: everything you print can be an airplane.
  7. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    Yeah, that definitely sounds like how Finland has historically responded to Russian aggression.
  8. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    Are they really? Sure, I believe Germany and others would love to have a stable commercial relationship with Russia, but that presupposes a Russia that is willing to have a stable commercial relationship with them. I believe that invading mutual trade partners is traditionally considered...
  9. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    It may have been obvious who was on what side, but it may not have been obvious what action would pull what power into war. But to bring it back to the current situation: I don't really see increased German involvement prompting China or Iran (or anyone else) to jump in on Russia's side of a...
  10. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    We disagree on a lot, but at least we can bond over not taking what Lindsay Graham has to say seriously anymore.
  11. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    "What possible use could there be for a missile platform that (absent Ukrainian sea-facing defenses) could park itself anywhere off the entire coastline on short notice?"
  12. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    I wasn't talking about Twitter randos. But if Russia's minister of defense (for example) can't be trusted to articulate Russia's aims, fine.
  13. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    You're saying Russia's war goals have been explicit and unchanging this whole time? I could have sworn I've seen very different war goals expressed by officials who would be expected to know them but tell me what you've got and I'll go check. 1. Fair enough that Russia also gets a say in how...
  14. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    It's not impossible that this will end up like Korea but I seriously doubt it: I think essentially all of Ukraine's allies will prefer the conflict to end rather than merely freeze. As for settling into a sort of dull roar that both sides find both sustainable and preferable to peace, without an...
  15. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    Yeah OK and Russia's win condition of conquer 100% of Ukraine has been set by Russia. If you want to say that anything less than absolute victory is no victory at all then you're entitled to that opinion but please at least make it a consistent opinion. (Well, maybe that wasn't the goal they...
  16. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    Completely eject Russia from what it took starting with the full scale invasion, or completely retake everything lost since 2014?
  17. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    With regard to you saying "All I predict is a russian victory": "OK, but can you give us some rough idea of what in your mind would be a minimal outcome that still counts as "russian victory"? For example: if Ukraine pushes Russia back to Crimea and the Donbas, does officially absorbing the...
  18. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    Oh, that reminds me, were you planning to answer the question I asked you?
  19. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    OK, but can you give us some rough idea of what in your mind would be a minimal outcome that still counts as "russian victory"? For example: if Ukraine pushes Russia back to Crimea and the Donbas, does officially absorbing the puppets it already had count as victory? If so then what if Ukraine...
  20. strunkenwhite

    Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

    I was confused by how you phrased that. I now believe you meant that the 30 day average is taken from an unknown but long time period (which is relevant since conditions have been changing over time), and that of the past two years one was higher than 30 days and one lower, and that a few...
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