Russia gathering forces near Ukraine Border
- Thread starter Zachowon
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Aaron Fox
Well-known member
[worries of Putin going down the 'Ukraine Early Push' insanity route intensifying]
This does not bold well. Not well at all.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
Snorkel kits for Russian tanks are nothing special, T-80 is not the best Russian tank T-90 and T-72B3 are, also Russians move their units by the railway all the time - have been doing that since 2008.
As long as Ukrainians don't decide to Leeroy Jenkins in Donbass there won't be any big fight and this is why there are so many pictures and videos of Russian units being moved, to discourage Ukrainians from military adventurism.
I wish I shared your enthusiasm. It may be a big bluff, but I doubt it with this much material and manpower being moved. My big question is, are there large dumps of ammo and POL being built up? If we see those, then it's on like Donkey Kong. My gut tells me war at the beginning of summer, late May or early June.
paulobrito
Well-known member
Well, in fairness to the Russian position, the tension is growing in the area, so is prudent for them to move more forces in the area, just in case.
OFC, can be the other, more nefarious option, but for now, only few know.
OFC, can be the other, more nefarious option, but for now, only few know.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
Yes and no. It's a big bluff, but I think the Ukraine will strike anyway, because they know that Russia will not go for the throat and soldiers are expendable goods. So there will be heavy fighting between Ukrainian and Donbass forces, if Ukrainians gain the upper hand then Russia will send a couple of battalion combat groups, backed by massive amounts of artillery to push the Ukrainians back to the starting line, perhaps also taking some villages to convince Ukrainians that they really lost this round.
Ukrainian army is a far cry from the mess it was in 2014 and many are convinced that their reorganized forces, with help of drones and magic Javelin missiles can copy the Azeris, mop the floor with Donbas forces and reconquer Donbas, while Russia will stand aside as not to endanger NS2, but the USA will then force the stop of NS2 anyway.
Their problem is that Donbas forces are also a far cry from disparate militias that fought them in 2014 and Russia is doing much to bolster them furtherly. The most likely Russian plan is that they will back them to the utmost, short of getting directly involved, so Donbas forces can stall Ukrainian assault until NS2 is finished, then Russian army will move relief forces, to throw the invading Ukrainian forces back.
There are no Russian intentions to go deep in Ukraine though, unless they intend to do deep raids, so there is no need for them to build massive stockpiles, the operational stockpiles of Southern military district would suffice, backed with on time deliveries from central depots.
No question about your analysis @PsihoKekec. I just wonder if it might be easier for Putin to head for Kiev, destroy the Ukrainian army in the field, dictate terms and then take what they want and leave? The rest of Ukraine can be the puppet basket case ala Belorussia that serves Putin's needs nicely.
paulobrito
Well-known member
For what? Ukraine don't have anything of value for Russia that justify the shitshow and sanctions that move guarantee.
Oh, from a military point of view, is indeed easy for Russia to do that, but is a bad option, and Putin with all is defects and problems is not that stupid from a large margin.
Oh, from a military point of view, is indeed easy for Russia to do that, but is a bad option, and Putin with all is defects and problems is not that stupid from a large margin.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
No. Grozny is still a sore memory for the Russians in general and having a replay of it on a city ten times it's size is not something any Russian politician would even think off. The current situation suits Putin so diplomacy and military will continue to play whack-a-mole for foreseeable future, because such massive operation simply wouldn't be worth the effort, especially as it would up the ante for USA and IMF involvement in Ukraine.
True. Just thought I'd ask the question?
Since Putin is KGB,not GRU,then openly gathering forces in one place probably means that it would never be used.
Or that he would attack somebody else.
Or maybe he is so smart that he did so so everybody would think that he would not attack,or attack elsywhere.
That is problem with quessing what KGB think.
Or that he would attack somebody else.
Or maybe he is so smart that he did so so everybody would think that he would not attack,or attack elsywhere.
That is problem with quessing what KGB think.
I knew that.That is why i do not knew if gathering forces mean attack on Ukraine,attack elsywhere,or something else.
paulobrito
Well-known member
Possibly - The Russians are very good at camouflage. But, the very public presence of the forces is a message.
Yeah, but the time and scale of the preparations seem way beyond that - we live in the age of spy sats, SIGINT and cellphones - speaking of, plenty of the commentary on this was sparked by a large amount of photos of heavy equipment being moved to the region by rail.
Then again, this is already "hidden" in plain sight by the official line of this being a military exercise - the absolute classic of all paranoid world leaders, and world leaders who want to cause paranoia about an incoming invasion alike.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
Russia could gather these forces in matter of days and with much less observation, it's something they practiced since 2008, the fact that they are doing it gradually and a lot of publicity shows that this is used as tool as diplomatic pressure.
It definitely is. But is it the main goal, a secondary goal, or opportunistic advantage made out of an unavoidable problem?
"Much less" is very different from "enough to gain surprise". Perhaps Russian internet would not be guessing it. But would that work well enough to fool US SIGINT despite the area in question certainly being of interest to it specifically for that reason?
And then there are the obvious follow up questions:
What is Russia expecting to achieve through this pressure initiative, and what is it going to do if Ukraine does not yield what is expected?
Is it opportunistic saber rattling in hope that Ukraine gets foolishly intimidated to give something up in next round of negotiations out of fear, or a last attempt to get the objectives of a military action without having to pay all the costs of taking said military action?
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
As I mentioned before, the Russian goal is to convince Ukrainian leadership not to attack Donbas during spring/summer.
If Ukraine attacks Donbas, then Russia will assist Donbas forces, first with weapons and volunteers (and ''volunteers''), if that is not enough then there will be direct military intervention in the Donbas region.