Nord Stream 1 and 2 Attacked

The One Char

Well-known member
This operates on the idea that Russia is a 'rational actor', when the last half-year shows they are very much not.

It also relies on the assumption that Russia didn't blow this specifically to try to throw blame on the US.

But you still think I'm a Leftist, so you obviously don't have a great grasp on reality over your preferred narrative.
I'm gonna explain this in the smallest words I can. They need the pipelines, so they can blackmail Germany.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
This operates on the idea that Russia is a 'rational actor', when the last half-year shows they are very much not.
And you think the United States is a rational actor?
It also relies on the assumption that Russia didn't blow this specifically to try to throw blame on the US.
It's possible; but that too would be an assumption.



@Bacle I hadn't considered the contractual aspects of the pipeline in regards to Russia. So that's a possible motive for Russia to have done this.
Except as he himself is clearly illustrating, there's no way in heck Russia isn't going to be blamed for this; meaning they'll still be on the hook for any contractual violations, and only an idiot wouldn't have seen that coming.
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
I'm gonna explain this in the smallest words I can. They need the pipelines, so they can blackmail Germany.

To explain two key counterpoints in equally small words:

1. Russia's leadership is clearly not completely sane.

2. False-flag bombings are a thing.

Personally, I put odds at less than 20% that Russia did this, but it is possible.

I think the most likely is it's just stupidity in operating the machinery resulting in pressure differentials that caused a collapse, but I'd say that's only about 30% likely. Most likely, but in a small plurality.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
I'm gonna explain this in the smallest words I can. They need the pipelines, so they can blackmail Germany.
Except Germany is already full up of reserves for the winter, and thus additional natgas from the pipelines would be 'nice to have', not 'difference between freezing and living this winter'.

Additional gas would also have been under the contracts that these blasts can now render 'void by act of God', thus saving Russia the penalty fees for violating said contracts.

And just today the Russians shutdown gas going to Europe via the remaining pipelines that go through Ukraine and Poland, which undercuts the 'they needed NS1/2 to hold Germany hostage' narrative.
And you think the United States is a rational actor?
More rational than Russia is, because unlike in Russia our troops can actually pass bad news up the chain, while Russian forces are structurally built so that people do not pass bad news up the chain for fear of getting blamed/made an example of.

Also, I should refer you back to them using Chernobyl as an armor corridor and giving conscripts pre-accident maps of the place that has resulted in them digging in some of the most radioactive soil on Earth, and undoing a lot of the work done to clean up the area after the reactor explosion, while now adding UXO's to the radiation hazards in the Exclusion Zone.

And this doesn't even touch the systemic corruption and graft that seems to be nearly at Afghani levels of 'ghost soldiers on teh payroll so officers can pocket more money' or how many of their equipment reserves turned out to have been stripped of choice bits by black marketers.
It's possible; but that too would be an assumption.
One backed up by the contractual issues with the pipelines Russia can now avoid, the Russians cutting off the other overland pipeline today, and how often the Russians have tried to pin their own fuckery on the West because they know the internal divisions bought on by the Left's behavior will give them top-cover for a bit.

Have you forgotten the 'US biolabs in Ukraine to make anti-Slav bioweapons' shit the Russians pushed in the initial days of the invasion?
Except as he himself is clearly illustrating, there's no way in heck Russia isn't going to be blamed for this; meaning they'll still be on the hook for any contractual violations, and only an idiot wouldn't have seen that coming.
This assumes that 'throwing doubt about who blew the pipeline to slow western response' wasn't also factored in, when it is something the Russians have attempted multiple times in the past regarding trying to pin the blame for their fuckery onto the West.
The timing of Russia cutting off the other pipelines today, the contractual issues they can now avoid, along with the fact that Germany already has all the gas it needs for this winter, do not seem to be considered in this article.
 

The Whispering Monk

Well-known member
Osaul
I'll just say that what we have here is a rich field of suspects.

Russia - cuz war w/Ukraine, don't want to deal with contracts, just plain angry
US - well, we said you were gonna lose NS2...NS1 was just in the way, forces separation between Russia and EU
Denmark Plus - b/c we want to have the only operational pipeline to Europe

I could keep going, but really not worth it.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
I'll just say that what we have here is a rich field of suspects.

Russia - cuz war w/Ukraine, don't want to deal with contracts, just plain angry
US - well, we said you were gonna lose NS2...NS1 was just in the way, forces separation between Russia and EU
Denmark Plus - b/c we want to have the only operational pipeline to Europe

I could keep going, but really not worth it.

dont forget poland because revenge.
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
along with the fact that Germany already has all the gas it needs for this winter
Bullshit, the storage could cover roughly 60% of winter consumption (2017 calculations, no change in storage capabilities since).

dont forget poland because revenge.
Well back in June the US Navy had an exercise involving unmanned submersible few kilometres away from the site of explosions, perfect opportunity to place explosive charges that could be detonated at later date, so it's unlikely they would need Polish assistance.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
Bullshit, the storage could cover roughly 60% of winter consumption (2017 calculations, no change in storage capabilities since).


Well back in June the US Navy had an exercise involving unmanned submersible few kilometres away from the site of explosions, perfect opportunity to place explosive charges that could be detonated at later date, so it's unlikely they would need Polish assistance.

cookie-5-638x480.jpg


pictured above an alligory of poland and germany right now.
 

Sergeant Foley

Well-known member
From the BBC: Nord Stream: Ukraine accuses Russia of pipeline terror attack

"Seismologists reported underwater blasts before the leaks emerged.
"There is no doubt that these were explosions," said Bjorn Lund of Sweden's National Seismology Centre, as quoted by local media.
The operators of Nord Stream 2 warned of a loss of pressure in the pipeline on Monday afternoon. That led to a warning from Danish authorities that ships should avoid the area near the island of Bornholm.

The operator of Nord Stream 1 said the undersea lines had simultaneously sustained "unprecedented" damage in one day."

From Not The Bee: JUST IN: Authorities say someone has blown up the Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Western Europe

"Winter is gonna be COLD this year in Europe.

Energy prices are already unbearable and now they couldn't get all the gas they needed even if they wanted. Their energy security has been destroyed."
Lesson of the day: NEVER let a crazy dictator control all of the energy in Europe.

Quite obvious Russia bombed the pipelines.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
I'm gonna point out here that pipelines can, in fact, explode even without anyone causing it.
Not in several places at the same time, with seismic readings indicating 100+ kg of explosives.
One backed up by the contractual issues with the pipelines Russia can now avoid, the Russians cutting off the other overland pipeline today, and how often the Russians have tried to pin their own fuckery on the West because they know the internal divisions bought on by the Left's behavior will give them top-cover for a bit.
Implying Russia gives a fuck about contracts. Remember how they nationalized hundreds of airliners from western leasing companies at the start of the war and then unilaterally demanded to be paid in rubles for gas?

And just today the Russians shutdown gas going to Europe via the remaining pipelines that go through Ukraine and Poland, which undercuts the 'they needed NS1/2 to hold Germany hostage' narrative.
No it doesn't. These pipelines have existed long before Nordstream 2, and you don't build a massively expensive undersea pipeline when you already have land ones if there are no political schemes involved.
They can't tempt Germany with a gas deal over the heads of Poland and Ukraine with those pipelines, because if either of these countries gets unhappy with the shady dealings, some extremely sneaky unknown parties could make something happen to the pipeline overnight.
Or instead of funny business they just take the gas for themselves.
Only a direct pipe to Germany enables a temptation of betraying eastern neighbors for cheap gas.
 

DarthOne

☦️
Implying Russia gives a fuck about contracts. Remember how they nationalized hundreds of airliners from western leasing companies at the start of the war and then unilaterally demanded to be paid in rubles for gas?
Wasn’t that in response to those companies pulling out of Russia as morale grandstanding in response to said war?
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
Wasn’t that in response to those companies pulling out of Russia as morale grandstanding in response to said war?
No, more to closing of airspace for Russian airlines in the West.
But there never was a clause in these lease contracts stating that if the West closes airspace to Russia over some beef, they can nationalize the planes.
It's all politics of "what can we do and what can we get away with", contracts are optional.
 
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Captain X

Well-known member
Osaul
Some of you seem to be forgetting that Russia seems to be moving closer to using nuclear weapons, and that there's been a lot of agitating for war with NATO, and thus Russia might be beyond wanting to try to use gas to temp anyone, especially since they've been doing that all along and it hasn't been working. Meanwhile, the bombing of these pipelines has served to undermine the NATO alliance as its members and a country that had been hoping to join are now all pointing fingers at each other, which I'm sure doesn't serve Russia's interests in any way. :cautious:
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
Some of you seem to be forgetting that Russia seems to be moving closer to using nuclear weapons, and that there's been a lot of agitating for war with NATO, and thus Russia might be beyond wanting to try to use gas to temp anyone, especially since they've been doing that all along and it hasn't been working.
It's all a dog and pony show for the public, western and local. With special treats for sensation hunting soyface journos. They are "moving closer" since the 3 day special military operation failed. Don't fall for it.
If they get even half serious, i would expect strategic bomber patrols with payload and nuclear test ban breaches.
Meanwhile, the bombing of these pipelines has served to undermine the NATO alliance as its members and a country that had been hoping to join are now all pointing fingers at each other, which I'm sure doesn't serve Russia's interests in any way. :cautious:
Sure, but at what cost?
The finger pointing everyone will forget about after some weeks, but Nordstream 2 will still be broken, no more promising Germans a return to business as usual if only they get the EU to cut sanctions while their gas storage runs low in winter.
Sure, they can cut sanctions, but Nordstream 2 can't be restarted even if Russia wants it restarted now, so what would be the point. That's some real leverage to pay for temporary confusion.
 

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