The shelves are getting empty

The Original Sixth

Well-known member
Founder
My local FLGS is also a kids toy store, and they traditionally do a HUGE amount of business at Christmas. Like most retailers, Black Friday to New Years is how they pay for their year.

They've smelled what's going on in the shipping arena and teh fact that a LOT won't be available on time for the holidays. So...they ordered their Christamas stock in Spring and early Summer. They were not going to rely on their distributors being able to get enough stock for everyone.

I have a feeling we may see a LOT of closures as a result if stores aren't able to get enough stock to meet their needs.

Well, maybe.

First, I expect there to be a panic. People will simply stop getting what they're used to, when they're used to. So you'll probably see a black holiday crunch like you haven't seen in over a decade, with people killing each other for small toys and goods.

Second, you'll see this pour into secondary sources. Maybe you can't afford Jimmy the headphones he wanted, but you can buy him a different set. Expect more expensive variations, less expensive variations, and knock-offs/offbrands to get a huge bump this year.

Third, expect toy companies to try and recoup their losses. This is NOT a new trick. They've done it for decades before. Oversell on one item, sell a secondary item, and then promise a discount on the original. Or take backorders. Whether this works or not with this level of shortage is uncertain, but you can expect that these toy stores will start to buy up any toy they can get their hands on.

Fourth, expect toy prices to skyrocket. So boys, if you gotta get something for someone, you best finish it before the month is out. October at the latest. No telling how quickly word will spread.

Fifth, expect layoffs and cut hours. Companies are going to have to try and make that money back. And raping employee hours is a long-held tradition. If you work retail, be prepared to be the only sod in your department. And if you're in the toy department, carry a gun for when you're left to the wolves.
 

Sobek

Disgusting Scalie
I'd prefer Vietnamese Communists to whatever the hell the Chinese are up to.

They actually went "you know what, you've gone too far", overthrew a neighbouring Communist regime, and restored a Monarchy. They're reasonable.

They also hate China, for what that's worth.

Vietnam has historical trauma when it comes to China. The kingdoms of the region spent a thousand years being tributaries to the Chinese Emperors. They really don't want to do that again.

Overall the massive collapse that is coming is gonna make 2008 look like a mild stomach ache compared to a 5.54 bullet to the abdomen. Everything is in a bubble, the markets are completely disconnected from reality, the money printer has been running non-stop for 2 years now and the powers that be are made up entirely of lip service and kabuki theater meaningless beurocrats upholding a neoliberal status quo. It will be legendary.
 

bintananth

behind a desk
Vietnam has historical trauma when it comes to China. The kingdoms of the region spent a thousand years being tributaries to the Chinese Emperors. They really don't want to do that again.

Overall the massive collapse that is coming is gonna make 2008 look like a mild stomach ache compared to a 5.54 bullet to the abdomen. Everything is in a bubble, the markets are completely disconnected from reality, the money printer has been running non-stop for 2 years now and the powers that be are made up entirely of lip service and kabuki theater meaningless beurocrats upholding a neoliberal status quo. It will be legendary.
The most generous person I've ever met was a Vietnamese Communist. I was out jogging on a hot day, forgot my wallet, and needed a glass of water.

All of the other restaurants within several blocks were snotty and would not give you one unless paid for it and would tell you "don't come back" if you didn't leave a large tip.

He was different. He told me to sit down and have breakfast. When I said didn't have my wallet and couldn't pay for it his response was along the lines of "don't worry about it, when you see someone in need you help them".

While talking to him I learned that he was barely making ends meet despite having the highest priced menu in the area and all tables reserved for weeks in advance.

He liked to cook and a homeless person knocking on the back door of his restaurant was 15 minutes away from a gourmet meal made just for them.
 

DarthOne

☦️
National review has an article, sourced from another article from The Dispatch, discussing the ongoing issue.

The Shipping Crisis Is Not Just Due to COVID | National Review

notably, this is appearnently a largely an American issue, stemming from years of port mismanagement and, as with so many other problems, unions.
I'm taking any claims that this isn't COVID's fault with a grain of salt. I don't see why the establishment wouldn't try to cover their asses over this.
 

S'task

Renegade Philosopher
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
I'd prefer Vietnamese Communists to whatever the hell the Chinese are up to.

They actually went "you know what, you've gone too far", overthrew a neighbouring Communist regime, and restored a Monarchy. They're reasonable.

They also hate China, for what that's worth.
Yeah, this is one of those things that for some damn reason our Elites cannot wrap their heads around: there's a massive network of countries in East Asia who WANT to be in the US sphere of influence if we were willing to just go "fuck China".

Seriously, for all of America's faults and mismangement, the ONE thing that every country on the world stage can see is that the American Empire is one of the lightest touch and most benevolent empires in world history. To be in our Sphere of Influence and an ally to the US really doesn't demand much compared to being a part of the Chinese, Russian, or British Empires. Heck, we're an Empire that has made our tributary states wealthy beyond their wildest dreams... though we've completely mismanaged conquered territory in the last 20 years.

I mean, step back and look at it from the perspective of Vietnam and do a comparison. Countries in the US Sphere in East Asia are South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. Those countries have ridiculously high standards of living and wealth, and are allowed a lot of freedom to do most of their own international affairs and govern themselves. Then compare countries firmly in the Chinese Sphere of Influence... North Korea, Tibet... Oh wait, one of those isn't a country anymore because it's been conquered and the other is North Korea. So yeah, no wonder Vietnam doesn't want to be in the Chinese Sphere and would rather be in the US sphere.

But our elites are so beholden to and enamored with China, they cannot see the truth of things in the region. It's disgusting.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
how about reducing the complexity of refrigerators?

There are things out there that are 50 plus years old and still work meanwhile the new computerized stuff barely lasts 5 years.
Even if they wanted to, nobody knows how to make things that last anymore. Plus, there's simply no incentive for them to do so; higher demand and lower supply just means more profit for them, in the grand scheme of things. What do they care if someone else's business further down the line can't get the equipment they need to operate anymore; all that matters is that each quarterly earnings report has higher profits than the last.
 

bintananth

behind a desk
Yeah, this is one of those things that for some damn reason our Elites cannot wrap their heads around: there's a massive network of countries in East Asia who WANT to be in the US sphere of influence if we were willing to just go "fuck China".

Seriously, for all of America's faults and mismangement, the ONE thing that every country on the world stage can see is that the American Empire is one of the lightest touch and most benevolent empires in world history. To be in our Sphere of Influence and an ally to the US really doesn't demand much compared to being a part of the Chinese, Russian, or British Empires. Heck, we're an Empire that has made our tributary states wealthy beyond their wildest dreams... though we've completely mismanaged conquered territory in the last 20 years.

I mean, step back and look at it from the perspective of Vietnam and do a comparison. Countries in the US Sphere in East Asia are South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. Those countries have ridiculously high standards of living and wealth, and are allowed a lot of freedom to do most of their own international affairs and govern themselves. Then compare countries firmly in the Chinese Sphere of Influence... North Korea, Tibet... Oh wait, one of those isn't a country anymore because it's been conquered and the other is North Korea. So yeah, no wonder Vietnam doesn't want to be in the Chinese Sphere and would rather be in the US sphere.

But our elites are so beholden to and enamored with China, they cannot see the truth of things in the region. It's disgusting.
Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the Vietnamese Communist I mentioned upthread thought the US - despite being a capitalist free-for-all - was better at being communist than most Communist governments manage to pull off.

If an American sees a scruffy looking guy in a liquor store at 1AM who is soaked from being out in a rainstorm holding two small bags of chips and looking like he can't decide if he can afford three they're probably going to say "fuck it, I can spare a few bucks", pay for the chips, and tell the guy to go grab a six-pack of beer too.
 

DarthOne

☦️
Even if they wanted to, nobody knows how to make things that last anymore. Plus, there's simply no incentive for them to do so; higher demand and lower supply just means more profit for them, in the grand scheme of things. What do they care if someone else's business further down the line can't get the equipment they need to operate anymore; all that matters is that each quarterly earnings report has higher profits than the last.
Well, I'd imagine not making them in China or with poor-quality materials would be a good start...
 

bintananth

behind a desk
Well, I'd imagine not making them in China or with poor-quality materials would be a good start...
During Vietnam the Soviets stopped sending goodies to Vietnam through China and instead sent the goodies by sea.

The Chinese kept stealing the good stuff and either replacing it with cheap knock-offs or not replacing it at all.

The worst the US would do is delay the shipment a bit by forcing the Soviet freighter to avoid getting too close to US ships or boarding the ship to perform some sort of inspection if it did get too close before sending it on its way.
 
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Yinko

Well-known member


Dollar Tree to start offering items that cost more than a dollar.

This is a really bad sign.

The dollar stores have always done this. Even twenty years ago they had more expensive items. Generally, they just found ways to excuse it, like it'd be $1 per weight, or it would be a package or whatever.
 

bintananth

behind a desk


Dollar Tree to start offering items that cost more than a dollar.

This is a really bad sign.

No, it's not. If you limit yourself to things you can profitably sell for a dollar the stuff you can offer is pretty limited.

Other dollar stores sell stuff which costs more than a dollar. It's usually a cheap knock-off. If you're hard up for cash or it doesn't need to last long they're basically Walmart-lite and great.

Fr'ex: Awhile back I was out really early when the sole on one of my shoes came off. Here were my options:

- Waste two hours I didn't have heading home to get a good pair.
- Buy superglue from a convenience store and hope it holds for the day.
- Wait for a shoe store to open and hope they have something in my size in stock (which is like winning the lottery because 11.5AAAA is never in stock and most shoes aren't made in that size at all).
- Deal with the hassle of Walmart or Target and still wind up with a pair that doesn't fit right.
- See if Dollar General has something in size 12.

I picked last option and was in-and-out in 5 minutes with a pair of knock-off Chuck's for $10 plus tax.
 

Rocinante

Russian Bot
Founder
The dollar stores have always done this. Even twenty years ago they had more expensive items. Generally, they just found ways to excuse it, like it'd be $1 per weight, or it would be a package or whatever.
Dollar Tree hasn't always done this.

Family Dollar and Dollar General have. They never advertised that everything is a dollar.

Dollar Tree had stood out because it's ALL a dollar. That's their gimmick.

Now that's no longer the case. Which is a shame.

Great place to buy seasonings for cooking btw. They're a dollar each, those same products are $5+ at the grocery store and despite not being some big name like McCormick, they taste the same.
 

The Whispering Monk

Well-known member
Osaul
DUST 1947

miniature wargame Dust 1947 goes under, largely attributed to shipping issues and costs.
That does suck.

Battletech was saved a LOT of pain because of the sheer timing and money their last kickstarter brought in.

DUST 1947 just didn't have solid plan to get established from what I saw, or at least not enough time pre-pandemic to make it work.
 

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