Middle East Running Iranian threat news and discussion thread

The Original Sixth

Well-known member
Founder
How normal is this in Iran?

It's probably a breaking point. Although not maybe the breaking point Bolton was praying for.

The Trump Administration basically crushed Iran's economy. What Iran had hoped would be an era of fantastic growth after Obama signed his deal with them has come crashing down in flames. After Biden took over, he saw no reason to change Trump's policy. The Iranians had hoped that Biden would be more sympathetic or at least carry out Obama's idea of balancing Saudi Arabia and Iran against each other. But the geopolitical reality has changed since then; Saudi Arabia has grown stronger (as meager of an advancement and a result as that is--it is true), while Iran's power has waned considerably.

This is a combination of existing economic stress from ~4 years of harsh economic sanctions and the effects of the Wuhan Virus. Because even if Iran didn't get one case or didn't shut down its economy, every major nation on the planet has been in crises mode for over a year now. The US is still re-emerging from its economic crises and won't be back to full strength until the end of the year. The rest of the First World won't be able to get vaccinated as the US could be (but chooses not to be) until the end of this year and what economic strength they will be able to recover will be a year away (before their demographic crises starts to take effect). And because a lot of First World economies are contracting, all the Second and Third World nations that rely upon them are also contracting, but without the larger government structure and support (not to mention advance medical technology and resources) to draw upon. And Second and Third World nations probably won't be able to get fully vaccinated until the end of next year.

You can expect these sort of conflicts to grow. Just like the US's internal political tensions, combined with the pandemic pushed to riots from both parties, other countries with internal and external tensions will begin to react. In the US, the most wealthy and secure entity on the planet, had violent riots. You might imagine how states with far, far less than the US might begin to act when their citizens begin to reach the end of their patience.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
It's probably a breaking point. Although not maybe the breaking point Bolton was praying for.

The Trump Administration basically crushed Iran's economy. What Iran had hoped would be an era of fantastic growth after Obama signed his deal with them has come crashing down in flames. After Biden took over, he saw no reason to change Trump's policy. The Iranians had hoped that Biden would be more sympathetic or at least carry out Obama's idea of balancing Saudi Arabia and Iran against each other. But the geopolitical reality has changed since then; Saudi Arabia has grown stronger (as meager of an advancement and a result as that is--it is true), while Iran's power has waned considerably.

This is a combination of existing economic stress from ~4 years of harsh economic sanctions and the effects of the Wuhan Virus. Because even if Iran didn't get one case or didn't shut down its economy, every major nation on the planet has been in crises mode for over a year now. The US is still re-emerging from its economic crises and won't be back to full strength until the end of the year. The rest of the First World won't be able to get vaccinated as the US could be (but chooses not to be) until the end of this year and what economic strength they will be able to recover will be a year away (before their demographic crises starts to take effect). And because a lot of First World economies are contracting, all the Second and Third World nations that rely upon them are also contracting, but without the larger government structure and support (not to mention advance medical technology and resources) to draw upon. And Second and Third World nations probably won't be able to get fully vaccinated until the end of next year.

You can expect these sort of conflicts to grow. Just like the US's internal political tensions, combined with the pandemic pushed to riots from both parties, other countries with internal and external tensions will begin to react. In the US, the most wealthy and secure entity on the planet, had violent riots. You might imagine how states with far, far less than the US might begin to act when their citizens begin to reach the end of their patience.
Look at France!
How badly do you think this will break Iran?
 

The Original Sixth

Well-known member
Founder
Look at France!
How badly do you think this will break Iran?


I'm not sure it will break Iran. The thing about Iran is, the core identity is Persian and it's the Persian elite who rule. You may see riots and a decentralization of power as Iran is in a moment of weakness and can't force its power into all of its territory, you might even see small pieces try to break away. And maybe that will be so.

But Iran is a fortress of mountains. Few powers around them have the power in the best of times to take advantage of this weakness and press into Iran proper (and doing so would galvanize the Iranians under their leaders). And right now, most of their other neighbors are either far weaker or in just as a tight of spot as they are. So I don't think you can rely upon a change in leadership.

My guess (for now), is that Iran's military will be mobilized to put down the rioters/protestors, its media will go into overdrive, and it will try to do what little it can to pass out subsidies and food to keep the rest of the population from joining in. That's really all they can do. Even if the US were to stop pressing its economy into the dirt, there's really not anyone they can sell to right now.

The real interest to me in the near future is China. They were already economically overleveraged (more than any other state in world history) before the pandemic. Biden hasn't been the breath of fresh air that they'd hoped for and the pandemic has worsened their relations with their trade partners and gutted their exports.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
I'm not sure it will break Iran. The thing about Iran is, the core identity is Persian and it's the Persian elite who rule. You may see riots and a decentralization of power as Iran is in a moment of weakness and can't force its power into all of its territory, you might even see small pieces try to break away. And maybe that will be so.

But Iran is a fortress of mountains. Few powers around them have the power in the best of times to take advantage of this weakness and press into Iran proper (and doing so would galvanize the Iranians under their leaders). And right now, most of their other neighbors are either far weaker or in just as a tight of spot as they are. So I don't think you can rely upon a change in leadership.

My guess (for now), is that Iran's military will be mobilized to put down the rioters/protestors, its media will go into overdrive, and it will try to do what little it can to pass out subsidies and food to keep the rest of the population from joining in. That's really all they can do. Even if the US were to stop pressing its economy into the dirt, there's really not anyone they can sell to right now.

The real interest to me in the near future is China. They were already economically overleveraged (more than any other state in world history) before the pandemic. Biden hasn't been the breath of fresh air that they'd hoped for and the pandemic has worsened their relations with their trade partners and gutted their exports.
I say both are right now.

We just have to wait and see
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
The real interest to me in the near future is China. They were already economically overleveraged (more than any other state in world history) before the pandemic. Biden hasn't been the breath of fresh air that they'd hoped for and the pandemic has worsened their relations with their trade partners and gutted their exports.
Funny how that works. When you think you won your troubles are not over. Mission accomplished.
 

The Original Sixth

Well-known member
Founder
I say both are right now.

We just have to wait and see

It may not be as easy as you think. Look how badly North Korea has degraded and its ruling family and the generals are STILL in charge of everything. It really depends on where the breaking point for the common Chinese man is going to be. And the more pressure that Xi faces internally, the more he's going to try and get the people focused on external rivalries, such as the United States, the Japanese, the Australians, the Koreans, ect. In the hope of galvanizing the people on his side, he's burning his bridges with every other country.

Funny how that works. When you think you won your troubles are not over. Mission accomplished.

The world's problems are just beginning. 2021 was, according to demographic projections, the tipping point for Europe. As in, no more economic growth. Ever. Again. That is going to cause problems. Some of those states are better off than others. The UK is going to integrate itself in with the United States, assuming they don't insist on being stupid. The French are going to solidify their power over West Africa by going neo-colonial. The Germans...will try and hold the EU together while promising not to ever pay for anything the others want. And the Russians will try and push west.

And those are the major first world powers.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
It may not be as easy as you think. Look how badly North Korea has degraded and its ruling family and the generals are STILL in charge of everything. It really depends on where the breaking point for the common Chinese man is going to be. And the more pressure that Xi faces internally, the more he's going to try and get the people focused on external rivalries, such as the United States, the Japanese, the Australians, the Koreans, ect. In the hope of galvanizing the people on his side, he's burning his bridges with every other country.



The world's problems are just beginning. 2021 was, according to demographic projections, the tipping point for Europe. As in, no more economic growth. Ever. Again. That is going to cause problems. Some of those states are better off than others. The UK is going to integrate itself in with the United States, assuming they don't insist on being stupid. The French are going to solidify their power over West Africa by going neo-colonial. The Germans...will try and hold the EU together while promising not to ever pay for anything the others want. And the Russians will try and push west.

And those are the major first world powers.
Diffrenc being North Korea can keep their people pacified
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
The world's problems are just beginning. 2021 was, according to demographic projections, the tipping point for Europe. As in, no more economic growth. Ever. Again. That is going to cause problems. Some of those states are better off than others. The UK is going to integrate itself in with the United States, assuming they don't insist on being stupid. The French are going to solidify their power over West Africa by going neo-colonial. The Germans...will try and hold the EU together while promising not to ever pay for anything the others want. And the Russians will try and push west.

And those are the major first world powers.
What goes up must go down once the money runs out and today's fashion is in the future outdated when medical treatments are more expensive you can't afford it. Looking at the LGBT sex change treatments.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
What goes up must go down once the money runs out and today's fashion is in the future outdated when medical treatments are more expensive you can't afford it. Looking at the LGBT sex change treatments.
Yep.

People won't be able to afford the 'treatments'; doctors made a lot of bank off the trans surgeries and meds. It's not really different than other elective cosmetics epidermal surgeries. Like Tit job, ass jobs, lip plumping, and cosmetic bone shaving.

But in the new...well, Roaring 20's is a optimistic assesment right now, means those surgeries and meds are going to be a lot low on people's list of priority expenditures.
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
But in the new...well, Roaring 20's is a optimistic assesment right now, means those surgeries and meds are going to be a lot low on people's list of priority expenditures.
Where money is concerned, how many will be worried about their pronouns when they need to fucking work their ass off to eat?
People won't be able to afford the 'treatments'; doctors made a lot of bank off the trans surgeries and meds. It's not really different than other elective cosmetics epidermal surgeries. Like Tit job, ass jobs, lip plumping, and cosmetic bone shaving.
Some of those treatments are debatable on their effectiveness. Remember how lobotomy was considered a treatment for the mentally disabled?
 

The Original Sixth

Well-known member
Founder
Diffrenc being North Korea can keep their people pacified

Xi is working overtime to instill within the Chinese mind, that it doesn't matter if you have a job or can feed yourself, you are Chinese and Xi is your leader. The constant antagonisms over the past year is probably not China getting too big for its britches. It's Xi trying to generate a backlash against China, which in turn he will use to generate a backlash against the outside world, increasing in-group cohesion. Pair that with state monitoring programs (very aggressive ones) to weed out the 'bad apples' and benefits to snitches--not to mention constant attempts at displaying Chinese military power...well, you have your propaganda machine.

Will it work? Probably not. North Korea is more or less one nation or ethnic group under their leader. Even if their leader sucks, it's their leader. China...is multiple Chinese ethnic groups under the thumb of the Han. And that has not always--well, ever...really worked out well for China. China has remained united because they all agreed on making money. China's internal structure is probably just as fragile as the EUs, but paved over with tyranny and one-party rule.

The question is really about the breaking point of the Chinese. When do certain parts of the country turn against their leaders? When do the elites in the party realize they can't hold this or that territory? What happens when entire economic sectors go up in smoke? Will the Chinese keep working for the sake of the group or turn against their masters?

I don't think Xi will succeed, not personally. But there are examples of countries surviving in far worse conditions. For decades. Namely North Korea. Hell, Russia isn't really a pleasant place to live when you look at their middle or lower class. It depends on how much punishment the average Chinese man is willing to take. But all evidence suggests that the average Chinese man is about to be poor, starving, and likely to die a virgin.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
Diffrenc being North Korea can keep their people pacified
The other side of the coin is - considering how closely China and NK cooperate and function, what is it that is so effective, NK can do it and China can't, even if the party's power, scratch that, very survival is going to be on the line?

Will it work? Probably not. North Korea is more or less one nation or ethnic group under their leader. Even if their leader sucks, it's their leader. China...is multiple Chinese ethnic groups under the thumb of the Han. And that has not always--well, ever...really worked out well for China. China has remained united because they all agreed on making money. China's internal structure is probably just as fragile as the EUs, but paved over with tyranny and one-party rule.

The question is really about the breaking point of the Chinese. When do certain parts of the country turn against their leaders? When do the elites in the party realize they can't hold this or that territory? What happens when entire economic sectors go up in smoke? Will the Chinese keep working for the sake of the group or turn against their masters?
That is a pretty major rift point... but how would that work? The party had definitely thought to cover their bases in that area. The Han aren't bleeding heart liberals scared of being called colonialist oppressors. They have already handled mass discontent from several different ethnic groups within China, in the expected way, and got away with it. Between their tight grip on communications, close tracking of the news about measures and countermeasures in that area, and the sheer size of China, they will not allow any troublesome situation to spread too widely. Unless the party and its Han base both get themselves too distracted with something, or better yet, each other, to react, the rest won't be let go no matter what.
The party knows it, and so they are already preparing for that scenario, tightening their grip on society, doubling down on propaganda, sneaking away from the economic promises of old.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
The other side of the coin is - considering how closely China and NK cooperate and function, what is it that is so effective, NK can do it and China can't, even if the party's power, scratch that, very survival is going to be on the line?


That is a pretty major rift point... but how would that work? The party had definitely thought to cover their bases in that area. The Han aren't bleeding heart liberals scared of being called colonialist oppressors. They have already handled mass discontent from several different ethnic groups within China, in the expected way, and got away with it. Between their tight grip on communications, close tracking of the news about measures and countermeasures in that area, and the sheer size of China, they will not allow any troublesome situation to spread too widely. Unless the party and its Han base both get themselves too distracted with something, or better yet, each other, to react, the rest won't be let go no matter what.
The party knows it, and so they are already preparing for that scenario, tightening their grip on society, doubling down on propaganda, sneaking away from the economic promises of old.
NK has a smaller population and cut off all outside influences except for the very very elite.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
NK has a smaller population and cut off all outside influences except for the very very elite.
But does NK have smaller population proportional to their security apparatus, current, or in China's case, also potential one?
They also have proportionally less people fit for such work stuck in military and other administrative positions.
China's one is also certainly better funded and equipped with work saving and effectivness increasing devices too.

China is obviously applying its own policy of keeping outside influences limited to less troublesome ones and managing their scale overall, also it must have an emergency crackdown plan (or dozen) ready in case outside influences become a major issue, particularly the internet, firing off several of which (particularly costly and unpopular ones) in response to some event in turn would be a very useful indicator of China being under immediate threat of such destabilization according to CCP itself.
 
Last edited:

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
But does NK have smaller population proportional to their security apparatus, current, or in China's case, also potential one?
They also have proportionally less people fit for such work stuck in military and other administrative positions.
China's one is also certainly better funded and equipped with work saving and effectivness increasing devices too.

China is obviously applying its own policy of keeping outside influences limited to less troublesome ones and managing their scale overall, also it must have an emergency crackdown plan (or dozen) ready in case outside influences become a major issue, particularly the internet, firing off several of which (particularly costly and unpopular ones) in response to some event in turn would be a very useful indicator of China being under immediate threat of such destabilization according to CCP itself.
To be like NK, China would have to shut off all tourism that is not state sanctioned. Basically you can only go where the country let's you. Only allow travel outside of the country to the elite of elite or only CCP members. Destroy any non state sanctioned religions.
What makes NK diffrent is they are supplied by outside forces. For instance watching NK defectors you can learn what all they do to keep the people oppressed.
Most of tjem have never seen a lot of what China has, let alone what South Korea or Japan has.

To make such a large country to be as isolated as NK, they would have to crack down and everything about thier country.
 

GoldRanger

May the power protect you
Founder
But does NK have smaller population proportional to their security apparatus, current, or in China's case, also potential one?
They also have proportionally less people fit for such work stuck in military and other administrative positions.
China's one is also certainly better funded and equipped with work saving and effectivness increasing devices too.

China is obviously applying its own policy of keeping outside influences limited to less troublesome ones and managing their scale overall, also it must have an emergency crackdown plan (or dozen) ready in case outside influences become a major issue, particularly the internet, firing off several of which (particularly costly and unpopular ones) in response to some event in turn would be a very useful indicator of China being under immediate threat of such destabilization according to CCP itself.
China is way too big and populous, and its population way too educated (even if indoctrinated) to copy the NK model. It's not going to happen.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top